Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Alvin KamaraRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Saints vs. Jaguars
Right now, Alvin Kamara’s rushing yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-106/-129).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 49.5 (-129) after it opened @ 58.5 (-115).
Pros
- The projections expect this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.1 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
- The Saints have called the 4th-most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 63.7 plays per game.
- This week, Alvin Kamara is forecasted by the model to find himself in the 90th percentile when it comes to RBs with 14.8 rush attempts.
- With an exceptional rate of 60.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (89th percentile), Alvin Kamara stands among the best running backs in the league since the start of last season.
- The Jaguars defensive tackles profile as the worst DT corps in the league this year with their run defense.
Cons
- The leading projections forecast the New Orleans Saints to be the 7th-least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 40.2% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.
- While Alvin Kamara has earned 69.8% of his offense’s rushing play calls in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be a less important option in New Orleans’s ground game in this game at 55.8%.
- Opposing teams have rushed for the 6th-fewest adjusted yards in the league (just 78.0 per game) versus the Jaguars defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
59
Rushing Yards
59
Rushing Yards
