Week 6 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Dawson Knox from EV Insight

Dawson KnoxReceiving Yards

Right now, Dawson Knox’s receiving yards prop is set at 34.5 yards (-114/-114).

The public has bet the OVER up to 34.5 (-114) after it opened @ 33.5 (-114).

Pros

The model projects the Bills as the 2nd-most pass-heavy offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 68.3% pass rate.
Dawson Knox has run a route on 66.2% of his offense’s dropbacks this year, ranking him in the 75th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
This week, Dawson Knox is anticipated by the predictive model to land in the 75th percentile among TEs with 4.1 targets.
As it relates to protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack statistics), the offensive line of the Bills profiles as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year.
This year, the porous New York Giants defense has been torched for the 2nd-most yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing tight ends: a colossal 8.58 YAC.

Cons

An extreme rushing game script is suggested by the Bills being a heavy 15.5-point favorite in this game.
Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Bills are predicted by the projections to call only 62.9 plays on offense in this contest: the 7th-lowest number among all teams this week.
Opposing teams have averaged 29.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Giants defense this year: 3rd-fewest in the NFL.
Dawson Knox has accrued significantly fewer air yards this season (25.0 per game) than he did last season (33.0 per game).
Dawson Knox has totaled many fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (16.0) this year than he did last year (34.0).

Projection

THE BLITZ
28
Receiving Yards