Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Gerald EverettReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Chargers vs. Cowboys
Right now, Gerald Everett’s receiving yards prop is set at 26.5 yards (-131/-104).
The public has bet the OVER up to 26.5 (-131) after it opened @ 25.5 (-117).
Pros
- Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Chargers to pass on 63.4% of their opportunities: the 3rd-greatest clip on the slate this week.
- The leading projections forecast this game to have the 3rd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.4 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
- The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a massive 61.2 plays per game.
- The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- The model projects Gerald Everett to accumulate 4.6 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 76th percentile when it comes to TEs.
Cons
- The model projects the Chargers offensive gameplan to skew 2.2% more towards the rushing attack than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 27.2 pass attempts per game against the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: fewest in the league.
- Gerald Everett has been used less as a potential target this season (47.5% Route Participation% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (59.4%).
- After averaging 31.0 air yards per game last year, Gerald Everett has gotten worse this year, currently sitting at 10.0 per game.
- Gerald Everett’s 29.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season conveys a a meaningful decrease in his receiving ability over last season’s 37.0 rate.
Projection
THE BLITZ
30
Receiving Yards
30
Receiving Yards
