Week 6 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Gerald Everett from EV Insight

Gerald EverettReceiving Yards

Right now, Gerald Everett’s receiving yards prop is set at 26.5 yards (-131/-104).

The public has bet the OVER up to 26.5 (-131) after it opened @ 25.5 (-117).

Pros

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Chargers to pass on 63.4% of their opportunities: the 3rd-greatest clip on the slate this week.
The leading projections forecast this game to have the 3rd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.4 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a massive 61.2 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The model projects Gerald Everett to accumulate 4.6 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 76th percentile when it comes to TEs.

Cons

The model projects the Chargers offensive gameplan to skew 2.2% more towards the rushing attack than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 27.2 pass attempts per game against the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: fewest in the league.
Gerald Everett has been used less as a potential target this season (47.5% Route Participation% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (59.4%).
After averaging 31.0 air yards per game last year, Gerald Everett has gotten worse this year, currently sitting at 10.0 per game.
Gerald Everett’s 29.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season conveys a a meaningful decrease in his receiving ability over last season’s 37.0 rate.

Projection

THE BLITZ
30
Receiving Yards