College Football Props of the Week: Week 4
Walter Waddell
Chuba HubbardRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Dolphins vs. Panthers
Right now, Chuba Hubbard’s rushing yards prop is set at 47.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 47.5 (-110) after it opened @ 45.5 (-110).
Pros
- The 5th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Panthers this year (a monstrous 63.6 per game on average).
- The projections expect Chuba Hubbard to earn 14.3 carries in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 80th percentile when it comes to running backs.
- While Chuba Hubbard has been responsible for 26.8% of his offense’s rush attempts in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a more important option in Carolina’s rushing attack in this game at 59.3%.
- The Carolina Panthers O-line grades out as the 10th-best in the NFL last year in run-blocking.
- Chuba Hubbard has been among the leading running backs in the league at picking up extra rushing yardage, averaging an outstanding 3.49 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 81st percentile.
Cons
- The predictive model expects the Panthers offense to tilt 5.1% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Thomas Brown now calling the plays.
- The Panthers are a massive 14-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- The leading projections forecast the Carolina Panthers as the 6th-least run-centric team on the slate this week with a 38.6% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Carolina Panthers are projected by the model to call only 62.9 plays on offense in this game: the 7th-fewest on the slate this week.
- As it relates to the safeties’ role in run defense, Miami’s collection of safeties has been very good this year, projecting as the 3rd-best in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
63
Rushing Yards
63
Rushing Yards
