Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Cade OttonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Buccaneers vs. Lions
Right now, Cade Otton’s receiving yards prop is set at 23.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 23.5 (-110) after it opened @ 24.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Buccaneers are a 3-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 43.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Detroit Lions defense this year: most in the league.
- Cade Otton has gone out for fewer passes this year (82.6% Route Participation% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (63.9%).
- The leading projections forecast Cade Otton to notch 4.1 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 75th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
- Cade Otton’s ball-catching skills have improved this year, with his Adjusted Catch% increasing from 66.2% to 79.4%.
Cons
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 6.5% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- The projections expect the Buccaneers to be the 10th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 56.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Buccaneers are anticipated by the projection model to run just 62.9 plays on offense in this game: the 7th-fewest on the slate this week.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the 10th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 56.2 plays per game.
- After accumulating 23.0 air yards per game last season, Cade Otton has regressed heavily this season, now pacing 16.0 per game.
Projection
THE BLITZ
25
Receiving Yards
25
Receiving Yards
