Week 6 Player Props: Passing Yards for Justin Herbert from EV Insight

Justin HerbertPassing Yards

Right now, Justin Herbert’s passing yards prop is set at 277.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 277.5 (-110) after it opened @ 282.5 (-110).

Pros

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Chargers to pass on 63.4% of their opportunities: the 3rd-greatest clip on the slate this week.
The leading projections forecast this game to have the 3rd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.4 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a massive 61.2 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
With an exceptional total of 278.0 adjusted passing yards per game (89th percentile), Justin Herbert has been as one of the top quarterbacks in football this year.

Cons

The model projects the Chargers offensive gameplan to skew 2.2% more towards the rushing attack than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 27.2 pass attempts per game against the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: fewest in the league.
Opposing offenses have thrown for the 2nd-fewest yards in the NFL (just 186.0 adjusted yards per game) vs. the Dallas Cowboys defense this year.
This year, the daunting Cowboys defense has conceded a mere 62.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 3rd-lowest rate in football.
As it relates to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, Dallas’s unit has been terrific this year, ranking as the 2nd-best in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
277
Passing Yards