Week 6 Player Props: Receiving Yards for A.J. Brown from EV Insight

A.J. BrownReceiving Yards

Right now, A.J. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 71.5 yards (-120/-100).

The public has bet the OVER up to 71.5 (-120) after it opened @ 65.5 (-110).

Pros

With regard to a defense’s impact on tempo, at 27.40 seconds per snap, the projections expect the Eagles as the 6th-fastest in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment.
The leading projections forecast A.J. Brown to accumulate 8.3 targets in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 88th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
After accumulating 104.0 air yards per game last season, A.J. Brown has shown good development this season, now pacing 134.0 per game.
A.J. Brown’s 81.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 70.9.
A.J. Brown’s 105.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year reflects a a noteworthy growth in his receiving proficiency over last year’s 80.0 rate.

Cons

A rushing game script is implied by the Eagles being a 6.5-point favorite in this game.
The leading projections forecast the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 2nd-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 51.6% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 34.6 pass attempts per game versus the Jets defense this year: 10th-fewest in the NFL.
The Jets defense has given up the 3rd-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 117.0) to wide receivers this year.
The Jets pass defense has exhibited good efficiency against WRs this year, conceding 6.81 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 5th-fewest in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
79
Receiving Yards