Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tyler ConklinReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Jets vs. Eagles
Right now, Tyler Conklin’s receiving yards prop is set at 28.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 28.5 (-110) after it opened @ 27.5 (-114).
Pros
- The New York Jets will be rolling out backup QB Zach Wilson in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are underdogs in this game, implying more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their normal game plan.
- The Eagles defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, causing opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in football (41.0 per game) this year.
- The model projects Tyler Conklin to earn 5.2 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking in the 84th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
- With an excellent 38.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (84th percentile) this year, Tyler Conklin rates among the best TE receiving threats in the NFL.
Cons
- The Jets have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to lean 1.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- At the present time, the 5th-slowest paced offense in the league (adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Jets.
- After accruing 38.0 air yards per game last year, Tyler Conklin has been a disappointment this year, now pacing 29.0 per game.
- The Philadelphia Eagles linebackers profile as the 10th-best group of LBs in the NFL this year in defending receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
31
Receiving Yards
31
Receiving Yards
