Week 6 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tyler Conklin from EV Insight

Tyler ConklinReceiving Yards

Right now, Tyler Conklin’s receiving yards prop is set at 28.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 28.5 (-110) after it opened @ 27.5 (-114).

Pros

The New York Jets will be rolling out backup QB Zach Wilson in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are underdogs in this game, implying more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their normal game plan.
The Eagles defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, causing opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in football (41.0 per game) this year.
The model projects Tyler Conklin to earn 5.2 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking in the 84th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
With an excellent 38.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (84th percentile) this year, Tyler Conklin rates among the best TE receiving threats in the NFL.

Cons

The Jets have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to lean 1.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
At the present time, the 5th-slowest paced offense in the league (adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Jets.
After accruing 38.0 air yards per game last year, Tyler Conklin has been a disappointment this year, now pacing 29.0 per game.
The Philadelphia Eagles linebackers profile as the 10th-best group of LBs in the NFL this year in defending receivers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
31
Receiving Yards