Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Brian RobinsonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Falcons vs. Commanders
Right now, Brian Robinson’s rushing yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 60.5 (-110) after it opened @ 58.5 (-110).
Pros
- Our trusted projections expect Brian Robinson to accumulate 13.9 rush attempts in this game, on average, putting him in the 83rd percentile among RBs.
- Brian Robinson has been a much bigger part of his offense’s ground game this year (65.7% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (52.4%).
Cons
- The Washington Commanders boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 12.7% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- The projections expect the Commanders to be the least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 35.4% run rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Commanders are anticipated by the predictive model to run just 62.6 plays on offense in this contest: the 4th-fewest among all teams this week.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Brian Robinson’s 52.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year signifies a a material drop-off in his rushing proficiency over last year’s 63.0 figure.
Projection
THE BLITZ
61
Rushing Yards
61
Rushing Yards
