Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Drake LondonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Falcons vs. Commanders
Right now, Drake London’s receiving yards prop is set at 43.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 43.5 (-110) after it opened @ 44.5 (-110).
Pros
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- Drake London’s 2.47 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season represents a a material gain in his efficiency in picking up extra yardage over last season’s 0.0% mark.
- The Washington Commanders defense has surrendered the 3rd-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (206.0) versus wideouts this year.
- The Commanders pass defense has displayed poor efficiency versus wideouts this year, giving up 10.74 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the most in the NFL.
- The Commanders linebackers profile as the 4th-worst collection of LBs in the league this year in defending receivers.
Cons
- The leading projections forecast the Atlanta Falcons to be the 5th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 53.8% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
- Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to see only 126.7 total plays called: the 5th-fewest on the slate this week.
- Drake London has been much less involved in his offense’s passing game this year (20.8% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (29.1%).
- After totaling 75.0 air yards per game last season, Drake London has produced significantly fewer this season, now boasting 67.0 per game.
- Drake London’s ball-catching skills have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate falling off from 62.6% to 57.0%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
57
Receiving Yards
57
Receiving Yards
