Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Logan ThomasReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Falcons vs. Commanders
Right now, Logan Thomas’s receiving yards prop is set at 35.5 yards (-113/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 35.5 (-115) after it opened @ 36.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Washington Commanders boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 12.7% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Washington Commanders to pass on 64.6% of their chances: the greatest frequency on the slate this week.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Logan Thomas has compiled quite a few more adjusted receiving yards per game (47.0) this year than he did last year (25.0).
- This year, the anemic Atlanta Falcons defense has yielded a massive 67.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing tight ends: the worst in football.
Cons
- Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Commanders are anticipated by the predictive model to run just 62.6 plays on offense in this contest: the 4th-fewest among all teams this week.
- This year, the stout Atlanta Falcons pass defense has conceded the 2nd-least yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing tight ends: a meager 3.3 YAC.
- The Falcons safeties profile as the 4th-best collection of safeties in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
Projection
THE BLITZ
41
Receiving Yards
41
Receiving Yards
