Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Kyle PittsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Falcons vs. Commanders
Right now, Kyle Pitts’s receiving yards prop is set at 32.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- Our trusted projections expect Kyle Pitts to accrue 6.5 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 94th percentile among TEs.
- In regards to air yards, Kyle Pitts grades out in the lofty 100th percentile among TEs this year, averaging a massive 73.0 per game.
- With an exceptional 39.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (86th percentile) this year, Kyle Pitts stands as one of the best TEs in the pass game in the NFL.
- Kyle Pitts’s 58.8% Adjusted Catch Rate this season indicates a a meaningful gain in his receiving proficiency over last season’s 49.3% rate.
Cons
- The leading projections forecast the Atlanta Falcons to be the 5th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 53.8% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
- Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to see only 126.7 total plays called: the 5th-fewest on the slate this week.
- With a RATE1-RATE2 point decline in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive involvement) from last year to this one, Kyle Pitts has been featured much less in his offense’s passing attack.
- Kyle Pitts’s 1.33 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year reflects a a substantial reduction in his effectiveness in space over last year’s 6.6% rate.
- This year, the tough Washington Commanders defense has allowed a puny 26.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing TEs: the best in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
50
Receiving Yards
50
Receiving Yards
