Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Joe BurrowPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Bengals vs. Seahawks
Right now, Joe Burrow’s passing yards prop is set at 280.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 280.5 (-110) after it opened @ 272.5 (-110).
Pros
- The projections expect the Bengals as the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 62.8% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is expected by the projections to see 128.8 total plays called: the 4th-most among all games this week.
- This week, Joe Burrow is expected by the model to wind up with the 2nd-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 38.3.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 42.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Seahawks defense this year: 2nd-most in the league.
- Opposing teams have thrown for the 2nd-most adjusted yards in football (315.0 per game) against the Seattle Seahawks defense this year.
Cons
- This week’s spread indicates a rushing game script for the Bengals, who are favored by 3 points.
- Joe Burrow has passed for substantially fewer adjusted yards per game (214.0) this season than he did last season (289.0).
- Joe Burrow’s passing precision has declined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 69.4% to 60.6%.
- Joe Burrow’s 5.42 adjusted yards-per-target this year illustrates a a meaningful decrease in his throwing efficiency over last year’s 7.6% mark.
Projection
THE BLITZ
272
Passing Yards
272
Passing Yards
