Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
DK MetcalfReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Bengals vs. Seahawks
Right now, DK Metcalf’s receiving yards prop is set at 63.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 63.5 (-110) after it opened @ 62.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Seahawks are a 3-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
- Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Seahawks to pass on 60.1% of their plays: the 8th-highest rate on the slate this week.
- The projections expect the Seahawks offense to be the 8th-fastest paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 27.18 seconds per play.
- In this contest, D.K. Metcalf is predicted by the predictive model to slot into the 84th percentile among wide receivers with 8.0 targets.
- With an impressive 71.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (88th percentile) this year, D.K. Metcalf rates as one of the leading wide receivers in the NFL in football.
Cons
- Opposing QBs teams have been reluctant to lean on the pass against the Bengals, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 30.8 per game) this year.
- D.K. Metcalf has totaled significantly fewer air yards this year (78.0 per game) than he did last year (103.0 per game).
- D.K. Metcalf’s 54.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been significantly worse this season than it was last season at 68.3.
- With a weak 2.89 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (24th percentile) this year, D.K. Metcalf stands among the leading pass-catching wide receivers in football in the open field.
- This year, the imposing Cincinnati Bengals defense has yielded a meager 57.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wideouts: the 4th-smallest rate in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
67
Receiving Yards
67
Receiving Yards
