Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Joe MixonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Bengals vs. Seahawks
Right now, Joe Mixon’s rushing yards prop is set at 62.5 yards (+105/-135).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 62.5 (-135) after it opened @ 67.5 (-115).
Pros
- This week’s spread indicates a rushing game script for the Bengals, who are favored by 3 points.
- Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is expected by the projections to see 128.8 total plays called: the 4th-most among all games this week.
- The predictive model expects Joe Mixon to accrue 18.5 carries in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 98th percentile when it comes to RBs.
- Joe Mixon has been a much bigger part of his team’s rushing attack this season (85.7% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (68.6%).
- With a terrific record of 65.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (87th percentile), Joe Mixon stands as one of the leading pure runners in the league this year.
Cons
- The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 3rd-least run-centric team on the slate this week with a 37.2% run rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- When it comes to blocking for rushers (and the effect it has on all run game statistics), the O-line of the Cincinnati Bengals profiles as the 10th-worst in football last year.
- The Seahawks defense has had the 2nd-best efficiency against opposing ground games this year, surrendering just 3.10 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).
- When it comes to the linebackers’ role in stopping the run, Seattle’s group of LBs has been fantastic this year, projecting as the 2nd-best in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
78
Rushing Yards
78
Rushing Yards
