Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Mark AndrewsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Titans vs. Ravens
Right now, Mark Andrews’s receiving yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 52.5 (-110) after it opened @ 54.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Ravens have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 2.3% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- The leading projections forecast Mark Andrews to notch 6.9 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 95th percentile among tight ends.
- Mark Andrews has been among the leading tight ends in the pass game this year, averaging an impressive 59.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 99th percentile.
- Mark Andrews’s possession skills have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate rising from 65.7% to 71.9%.
- This year, the feeble Tennessee Titans pass defense has been torched for a colossal 81.5% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing TEs: the 6th-biggest rate in the NFL.
Cons
- This game’s line indicates a rushing game script for the Ravens, who are favored by 5 points.
- Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Ravens to pass on 52.2% of their opportunities: the 3rd-lowest rate on the slate this week.
- The projections expect the Ravens to call the 10th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 63.2 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
- Mark Andrews’s 23.9% Target Share this year represents a an impressive reduction in his air attack workload over last year’s 29.9% figure.
- After accruing 79.0 air yards per game last year, Mark Andrews has produced significantly fewer this year, currently pacing 49.0 per game.
Projection
THE BLITZ
53
Receiving Yards
53
Receiving Yards
