Week 6 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Travis Kelce from EV Insight

Travis KelceReceiving Yards

Right now, Travis Kelce’s receiving yards prop is set at 65.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 65.5 (-110) after it opened @ 68.5 (-114).

Pros

Right now, the most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (69.3% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Chiefs.
Our trusted projections expect Travis Kelce to garner 8.6 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 100th percentile among tight ends.
The Denver Broncos pass defense has been torched for the highest Adjusted Completion% in football (85.4%) to tight ends this year (85.4%).
This year, the weak Broncos defense has surrendered the most adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing TEs: a monstrous 10.88 yards.
The Broncos linebackers rank as the 2nd-worst unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

Cons

With a 10.5-point advantage, the Chiefs are a massive favorite this week, suggesting much more of a reliance on running than their normal approach.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to see only 125.7 offensive plays called: the 4th-lowest number among all games this week.
Windy weather conditions (like the 20-mph being projected in this game) generally lead to lessened passing effectiveness, lower pass volume, and increased rush volume.
Opposing QBs have averaged 32.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Denver Broncos defense this year: 7th-fewest in the league.
Travis Kelce has accrued many fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (60.0) this season than he did last season (80.0).

Projection

THE BLITZ
63
Receiving Yards