Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Joe BurrowPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Bengals vs. Rams
Right now, Joe Burrow’s passing yards prop is set at 239.5 yards (+100/-137).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 239.5 (-137) after it opened @ 262.5 (-117).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 3rd-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 63.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Joe Burrow has attempted 38.8 passes per game since the start of last season, grading out in the 86th percentile among QBs.
- Joe Burrow has been among the leading QBs in the league since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 276.0 yards per game while grading out in the 92nd percentile.
- Opposing offenses have completed passes at the highest rate in the NFL versus the Los Angeles Rams defense since the start of last season (71.9%).
- The Los Angeles Rams cornerbacks project as the worst CB corps in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.
Cons
- The Bengals are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- The model projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 124.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Cincinnati Bengals O-line profiles as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
- Joe Burrow’s passing precision has diminished this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 69.4% to 57.1%.
- Joe Burrow’s throwing efficiency has declined this season, averaging a measly 4.67 yards-per-target vs a 7.63 rate last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
254
Passing Yards
254
Passing Yards
