NFL Week 9 FTN Staff Bets
FTN Staff
Enter the Sandman! The UFC heads to Nashville this week to feature a contest between Corey Sandhagen and Rob Font. Font steps in for the injured Umar Nurmagomedov and has the opportunity to take another step toward a title after being on the chopping block earlier this year.
The co-main event features the return of two dangerous female athletes looking to make a run of their own toward the title. Jessica Andrade is looking to get back into the win column after back-to-back losses. Tatiana Suarez looks to take out her third former world champ as she makes her second octagon visit after a two-year layoff that witnessed her conquer her battle with cancer.
There are six fights on the main card, and all six have a high possibility of ending before the judges score the card. As usual, I’ve broken down each main card fight and have produced a best bet for each contest. A lot of new faces and fighters are coming back from long layoffs this weekend. All odds are from BetMGM.
Sandhagen vs. Font Odds
Corey Sandhagen -325, Rob Font +260
Originally scheduled to fight Umar Nurmagomedov, Sandhagen now toes the line against New England Cartel member and UFC vet Font. Both fighters are 3-2 in their last five and are coming off wins against tough opponents. Sandhagen edged out Chito Vera by split decision four months ago, while Font took on rising star Adrian Yanez and put his lights out in the first round. This fight will be exciting and has Fight of the Night potential, but it’s important to note that both of these guys are matched up by chance, and if Font doesn’t beat Yanez, he may not even be with the promotion. With a win, Sandhagen would find himself in line for a title shot and possibly fighting the winner between O’Malley and Sterling. A win for Font gets him out of the doghouse and perhaps a new contract.
Font is a veteran, and even though he has never been knocked out in his career, he has taken a lot of damage and is perhaps at times too tough for his own good. His best weapon is his pressure and jab. He also carries fight-ending power in his hands. A specialist in the boxing department, Font’s game is very traditional and doesn’t have much flash. He can mix in the takedown averaging 1.01 takedowns per 15 minutes, but in his most recent fights has found himself on his back and in trouble like he was against Jose Aldo and Chito Vera.
Sandhagen was getting ready to fight someone unorthodox, and now that he gets to fight an orthodox fighter and someone more traditional, it plays more to his strengths. Sandhagen utilizes movement well in and out of strikes and controls the distance between him and his opponent. He recently has shown the ability to mix in the takedown, which adds another layer to his game that makes him a problem for Font. Font did well playing the role of gatekeeper in his last matchup, and this time he’s up against the next title contender, and Sandhagen should be able to use his movement to set traps, land devastating counters, and, once he gets to the canvas, possibly find a submission. He only has three wins by submission, but Sandhagen has been working with Ryan Hall, and I expect that groundwork to shine through in this matchup.
Bet: Corey Sandhagen by submission or decision +100 | Sandhagen ML and over 2.5 rounds -125
Suarez vs. Andrade Odds
Tatiana Suarez -375, Jessica Andrade +280
After a two-year layoff and a win over Montana De La Rosa in February, Suarez is looking to add the head of another world champion to her mantlepiece. Suarez faces off against former champion in Andrade. Suarez is the Ultimate Fighter season 23 winner, and since officially making her debut in 2017, she has only been to a decision once in her UGV career. She has wins over Alexa Grasso, Carla Esparaza and Nina Nunes. Suarez has a solid hround game and is known for her wrestling foundation. With Bellator Champion Patchy Mix in her corner, it has only gotten more challenging for her opponents anytime fights hit the ground. At 32, Suarez doesn’t have a lot of mileage on her body, but after her scare with cancer, many wondered if she would even return. The effects of the treatment have to be taken into consideration, but judging from her dominant win last time out, she seems primed to make a statement this weekend and take another step toward a title.
While Andrade does have the edge in experience, she is too much of a one-trick pony at this stage of her career, and if she doesn’t land her power cleanly, this can turn ugly fast. I expect this fight to go similarly to how Andrades’ fight with Blanchfield went. She swung for the fences until she was inevitably submitted.
Bet: Tatiana Suarez by KO/TKO or submission -150 | Suarez in Rounds 1 or 2 -120
Nzechukwu vs. Jacoby Odds
Kennedy Nzechukwu -155, Dustin Jacoby +130
Jacoby is looking to snap a two-fight losing streak this weekend. On the other hand, Nzechukwu is looking to extend his current three-fight winning streak. Both fighters are on opposite ends of the spectrum. With a win Saturday, Nzechukwu could see himself further up the rankings and into the top 10. While a victory for Jacoby possibly keeps him in the UFC and off the chopping block. The background for Jacoby is his story and legacy.
A former Glory kickboxing champion turned MMA fighter, Jacoby is just as high-level a striker as current LHW and former middleweight champion Alex Pereira. Jacoby has a history with Pereira, as he was knocked out in the first round of their kickboxing match in 2014. He may not hit as hard as Pereira these days, but his striking is still as technical and practical. He has an excellent lead jab hand to set up knees and high kicks and averages nearly six significant strikes landed per minute. He’s also very durable and has never been knocked out or submitted in the UFC. This a tall order for “The African Savage,” who looks to extend his winning streak of violence. Nzechukwu last three fights have ended within the distance, and each time more devastating. After he experienced his first losses back-to-back, Nzechukwu flipped a switch and has improved and looked more dangerous every time he fights. Against Karl Roberson, he displayed a grappling advantage and mauled his opponent and stopping him in the third round. Next, he took on the dangerous Ion Cutelaba and ended that fight in the second round by vicious ground and pound. Then, in his most recent fight, he finished the fight by submission and charted his first-ever win by submission in the UFC and his career.
This weekend, Nzechukwu should have success if he capitalizes on the weakness of Jacoby. That weakness is in the ground game. Jacoby does boast a 60% takedown defense, but once he gets taken down, it becomes harder to get back up and eventually will get stuck on the bottom under some vicious ground and pound. Kennedy is fighting with momentum and like a fighter who realized his strengths and now imposes them onto his opponents. I expect Nzechukwu to use his seven-inch reach advantage, coupled with his grappling, to set up shots from the outside. He doesn’t want to be standing with a specialist like Jacoby, so it would be wise to grapple often and early. The more energy Jacoby wastes on the ground, the harder it’ll be to strike if he gets back to his feet. The pick for me is Nzechukwu, as I believe his grappling and size will be too much to handle for Jacoby.
Bet: Kennedy Nzechukwu ML -170 | Nzechukwu by KO/TKO or submission +150
Lopes vs. Tucker Odds
Diego Lopes -170, Gavin Tucker +140
After two years away from the octagon, Tucker returns to the main card against a dangerous submission artist from Brazil. Lopes is based and coaches out of Lobo Gym in Mexico. He’s the head grappling coach for world champion Alexa Grasso and helped prepare Irene Aldana for her matchup against Amanda Nunes. Lopes first appeared on the Contender Series against Joanderson Brito. He didn’t get the win or the contract, but after a short stint on the regional scene, he returned to the UFC on short notice against Movsar Evloev. He impressed many in attendance, including his opponent, by putting forth an effort that showed he belonged. Fighting a top-10 opponent in your debut and almost finding a finish on multiple occasions deserves a contract.
Lopes Is coming into this fight with notable advantages. He has a height and reach advantage of five-plus inches, and while Tucker may hold the edge in the wrestling department when they transition on the ground, I believe Lopes has the edge. In 21 fights, he has finishes in 19, and if Gavin Tucker weren’t away for so long, I’d feel better backing him. At 37 years old and fighting after a two-year layoff, Tucker may come out hot in the first round, but if he doesn’t land any early subs, I can see him fading and Lopes taking over and finding a finish late.
Bet: Diego Lopes by KO/TKO or submission +120 | Diego Lopes ML -170 |Lopes vs. Tucker fight doesn’t go the distance -150
Boser vs. Camur Odds
Tanner Boser -155, Aleksa Camur +130
Camur looks to reintroduce himself to the UFC after two years on the shelf. He is an Ohio native and training partner of former HW champ Stipe Miocic. He is currently 1-2 in the UFC and gained his contract after a flying knee knockout win on the Contender Series. Camurs foundation is in boxing, and while he has shown promise inside the octagon, he was exposed against William Knight and Nicolae Nergumeranu. He didn’t have much of a gas tank, and it was evident that while he was tough to finish, he had no answer for the ground attack. Still, Camur is very good on his feet, and along with his crisp boxing, he also blends in kicks, he averages 4.78 significant strikes per minute, he’s accurate on 59% of his strikes, and he defends 50% of takedowns. Up until his last two fights, Camur had never been past the second round in any contest, and it could be one of the reasons why he was exposed. Overall, Camur is still green, and one can only hope that training with Stipe Miocic has honed and polished his MMA skills. The Bulldozer Boser continues his campaign in a new weight class after his debut at LHW ended Abruptly. He was knocked out in the first round, and outside of his impressive new physique, he didn’t show much else. Boser is fighting for his job in this fight. He’s 1-4 in his last five, and if he can’t take out Camur, I don’t see the UFC renewing his contract. Boser has an edge in experience with over 30 fights compared to Camur’s eight pro contests. To me, the better athlete and fighter is Camur, he’s rough around the edges, but this matchup with Boser should play to his strengths. Boser isn’t a specialist, and he’s made his career off being a durable brawler who wins wars of attrition. I see this fight going similarly to Bosers LHW debut earlier this year — he gets stopped inside two rounds.
Bet: Aleksa Camur ML +130 | Aleksa Camur by KO/TKO or submission +275
Bahamondes vs. Klein Odds
Ignacio Bahamondes -230, Ludovit Klein +183
Kicking off the main card are two fighters looking to make a statement in the lightweight division. Klein debuted in the UFC during the pandemic on fight island in Abu Dhabi. “The Highlight” quickly made a statement with a knockout win over Shane Young, then in his next two fights, he showed to have a weakness against fighters who matched his wrestling and were able to stand and bang with him. He would lose to Nate Landwehr and Michael Trizano and then bounce back against Devonte Smith and Mason Jones.
This bout against Bahamondes was scheduled last year but fell through, and Klein would go on to fight Jai Herbert to a draw. Once again, the holes in the game of Klein shined through; his physicality and athleticism were matched, and he had a tough time creating any separation in the eyes of the judges. Not to mention that Herbert utilized his length to keep Klein at a distance and the end of his strikes. Another problem for Klein is his output and insufficient volume to out-strike his opponent. Bahamondes triples the significant strikes thrown by Klein, and he also has a considerable height and reach advantage. Bahamondes need to copy and paste the game plan from Herbert and limit his aggression. In the past, Bahamondes has been known to throw all game-plan out the window and go full throttle. If he fights anything close to how he did Trey Ogden, he can stay measured and utilize his size and 95% takedown defense to keep this fight where he can succeed. The pick is Bahamondes to win by stoppage in the third or decision.
Bet: Ignacio Bahamondes in Round 3 or decision +105
