NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
The bantamweight division will be on full display this weekend when two of the hardest-hitting fighters in the division take center stage. Josh Emmett faces Ilia Topuria, who is 12 years younger than the Team Alpha Male Product. The co-main event features an important fight between Amanda Ribas and Maycee Barber in the women’s flyweight division. Kicking off the main card is hot prospect Brendan Allen taking on the hard-hitting Bruno Silva. Allen is coming off an impressive win over Andre Muniz and looks to continue his dominance.
There are 14 fights on this card. Below, I picked out my favorite bets for my favorite fights out of the 14. All odds are per BetMGM.
Topuria vs. Emmett Odds
Ilia Topuria -350, Josh Emmett +270
The bantamweight division will be on full display this weekend when two of the hardest-hitting fighters in the division take center stage. Topuria and Emmett are identical stylistically in that they both can box, grapple and end a fight with one punch. Topuria has only been to the third round once during his tenure with the UFC, and that was back in his debut. Emmett is looking to redeem himself after falling short against the current interim champion Yair Rodriguez. Topuria has won 62% of his fights by submission and 31% by knockout. Outside of the UFC, Topuria never went past the first round, and he submitted all but one regional opponent, which he knocked out. Topuria is 13-0 overall as a pro and 5-0 in the UFC. He hasn’t fought bums, either. In his debut, he fought Youssef Zalal and fought to a decision for the first time in his career. Since then, he has finished Damon Jackson (Round 1 KO), Ryan Hall (Round 1 KO), Jai Herbert (Round 2 KO), and Bryce Mitchell (Round 2 submission). What’s impressive about his finishes is that in most of those fights, he was put in terrible situations and almost finished and walked through fire to find his finish. Topuria is battle-tested and going into a battle against a veteran like Josh Emmett, he will have to lean on that newfound wisdom to stay clear of the power right hand from Emmett.
Emmett, like Topuria, likes to box and hunt for finishes. He does have a pedigree in grappling, considering he fights out of Team Alpha Male. Alpha Male is notorious for having good grapplers, and being led by a Hall of Famer in Urijah Faber, and they know how to win. The slight difference in their styles is that Topuria has the better footwork and uses it to walk opponents into his power shots, and Emmett lunges and throws punches like 100 mph fastballs. Also, Topuria uses his grappling offensively, whereas Emmett uses it defensively and only ends up on top after a scramble or reversal after he’s been taken down. Emmett has only been kept down on his back for a total of 30 seconds in 12 UFC fights. Yet one thing I noticed on the tape for Emmett is how vulnerable he becomes once he gets stunned or hurt in a fight. For example, he has never been submitted in his career. Once Yair Rodriguez began to apply pressure, he made bad decisions and put himself in a triangle submission. Topuria averages nearly three takedowns and 2.5 submissions per 15 minutes. Another essential thing to note is that perhaps Emmett is reaching the end of his run in the UFC, and the damage is starting to catch up to him. One of his best qualities was his durability, and up until his last two fights, he had never been stopped. He also has missed the boat on the title, so who knows when he’ll get another shot.
This fight is to set up Topuria and use a good guy like Emmett for validation. Anything can happen on fight night but for me, I’m going to side with Topuria because I believe he has been tested leading up to this fight, and because of those near falls, he will fight calculated and more dangerously than ever. If Topuria were to have an easy path leading up to this fight and fought cans, then I’d understand if he got knocked out over reaching looking for knockouts. Instead, because Topuria has been in wars with top talent already, this matchup is perfect for his arrival at the division’s top.
Bet: Topuria vs. Emmett over 1.5 rounds -110
Onama vs. Santos Odds
David Onama +190, Gabriel Santos -230
Outside the main event, my favorite fight on this card is between Onama and Santos. These fighters have similarities in their styles. Onama has only been to two decisions in his career, and they were losses. Every win on his record has been by finish, and his last fight against Nate Landwehr was the second time he went to a decision. The other decision loss came in his debut when he went to war with Mason Jones. Onama has six wins by knockout and four by submission. He fights out of an orthodox stance and utilizes his boxing to find finishes. He has power in everything he throws, from overhand rights to calf kicks; when Onama throws a strike, he can shut the lights out instantly. If Onama finishes the job in the first round against Landwehr, then perhaps we have very different odds, and Onama isn’t an underdog. Landwehr exposed the gas tank issues and dragged Onama into deep waters where his power no longer mattered, and he was almost finished a few times, but Landwehr lacked the power and technique in some of the submission attempts.
Santos has that power, and the jiujitsu chops to finish the fight where Landwehr lacked the power and technique. Santos made his debut against Lerone Murphy and right away showed that he belonged in the UFC. Murphy is no slouch and took Santos into deep waters for the first time in his young career. Before that fight, Santos had only gone to three other decisions, with all other wins coming by way of finish. Santos is an aggressive fighter who never takes a back step and uses his boxing to create car crashes and openings for his takedowns. His UFC stats are a bit skewed because he’s only had one fight, but in that fight, he landed five takedowns, and even though it went the distance, his two fights before his debut ended before reaching the judges against formidable opponents in the LFA.
Both of these competitors are powerful, aggressive, and at times a little wild. For those reasons, I expect this to be a Fight of the Night contender. Onama will have to answer his previous gas tank issues, and Santos will fight with an entire fight camp behind him. Santos fought on short notice in his debut and proved he belonged. This fight won’t be going the distance, both guys are tough but are very hittable, and they both hit very hard.
Bet: Onama vs. Santos under 2.5 rounds -130/Onama vs. Santos fight doesn’t go the distance -170
Allen vs. Silva Odds
Brendan Allen -185, Bruno Silva +155
Silva made his debut in 2021, and after three finishes, he was quickly on the fast track to the top of the division. It wasn’t until he ran into former middleweight champion Alex Pereira that he got his first loss in the UFC, and even though people expected the knockout from Pereira, Silva was able to take him down and, for a brief moment, show that Pereira had a flaw in his game. Still, once Pereira could stuff the takedown, the inevitable knockout happened. After that matchup, Silva was given a stepping stone to the top when he faced gatekeeper Gerald Meerschaert. While he managed to stun Meerschaert with his power, Silva was clipped while overextending and was finished on the ground. He is well-rounded, but his stand-up can be over-aggressive and expose him to damage. Silva found a finish in his latest fight against Brad Tavares, but if he loses, we probably aren’t talking about Silva anymore, and he’s possibly cut. While in the UFC, some moments and fights elevate you to a new level and result in contract renewals. Silva had his first shot against Meerschaert and lost and bounced back against an over-the-hill Tavares. Now he’s up against the best talent he’s faced to date in the UFC, and I don’t think it’ll go well for him.
Allen is 21-5 overall as a pro and 9-2 in the UFC. He made his debut for the promotion on the Contender Series. He is very well-rounded and has a background in judo and jiujitsu. He has wins over top talent like Kevin Holland (submission), Kyle Daukus (decision), Krzysztof Jotko (submission), and most recently, Andre Muniz (submission). He has been battle-tested and has already fought fighters scarier than Silva. Allen doesn’t have to do much but avoid the wild power shots and negate takedowns.
Anything can happen when you wear four-ounce gloves to fight, so I can’t rule out a knockout for Silva, but skill for skill, this is Allen’s fight to lose, and as long as he can negate the takedowns and stay clear of any wild punches than I think he should roll to a finish or unanimous decision win. Allen has a better resume and more technique, and while Silva will attempt takedowns, he isn’t a submission threat. Brendan has 12 wins by submission on his record, including his last two that ended by rear naked choke.
Bet: Brendan Allen by KO/TKO or submission -115 (1u)/Allen vs. Silva under 2.5 rounds -185
Magny vs. Rowe odds
Neil Magny -170, Phillip Rowe +140
As I mentioned earlier, there are moments in a fighter’s career when a win or a loss can elevate or deflate that fighter’s trajectory. That moment has arrived for the Fusion X-Cel product Rowe. Rowe is a four-fight veteran in the UFC, and after his debut, where he lost, he has gone on to win back-to-back fights by knockout. Rowe is 10-3 overall as a pro and 3-1 in the UFC. Every time he steps into the octagon, he shows a new wrinkle in his game and more confidence in his skill set. Rowe has an 80-inch reach, but that isn’t an advantage in this matchup because Magny has the same reach. The difference could be the power that Rowe possesses and the clean boxing technique that is sharper than Magny’s. Magny had the edge in experience and utilized his wrestling better. The problem is that if he can’t get the takedown going, it could lead to damage and a possible knockout. Magny also isn’t a submission threat because he doesn’t actively look for submissions. His takedowns secure control time and damage. Rowe is my favorite dog of the week, and even though this is the biggest name he has fought, I don’t think it’ll be his biggest test. Magny has been in the ufc since 2013, and without much evolution in his game in recent years, I can only see him becoming a stepping stone for Rowe and his career.
Bet: Philip Rowe ML +140
Turman vs. Brown Odds
Wellington Turman +185, Randy Brown -230
Brown is 4-1 in his last five, and his last fight ended the hot streak after he lost by submission in the first round. The submission was brought on after Brown was clipped and dropped by a right hook from Jack Della Maddalena. It’s interesting to note that all of Brown’s losses but one have come by way of finish. He is a polished striker and well-rounded anywhere the fight can go, but his style and leaving his hands down sometimes expose him to damage. Before his last fight, Brown was on a four-fight winning streak. He’s also never lost back-to-back fights, so I’d expect the best version of Brown this weekend. He has a six-inch reach advantage and is taller by three inches than Turman. The vital stat to note is Brown’s takedown defense, which is at 71%. It’s important because for Wellington to succeed, he must grapple and take this fight to the canvas. Brown has been submitted twice in the past, so he is vulnerable in that area, but I don’t expect it to be accessible as Brown has improved every fight and has shown that he can stop the takedowns and keep opponents at a distance with his jabs and teep kicks.
Brown fights with movement, precision and speed. If he can stop the takedowns from Turman, as well as avoid the power hand rights that Turman will throw to close the distance. Then Brown should be able to pick Wellington apart and eventually find a finish late or win on the cards. Wellington is a good fighter with much potential, but his vulnerability is in his stand-up and chin. He doesn’t strike with much confidence and can get reckless because he brawls to get on the inside. This recklessness will get him into trouble with a striker like Brown.
Like Andrew Sanchez, who knocked Turman out with a counter punch, I expect Randy to keep the fight standing and find a finish via a counter. The line is justified in this matchup because while Turman does have the grappling chops, I don’t think he possesses enough stand-up to fight his way inside to a takedown easily. Brown is very good and always comes into fights upgraded. Brown via KO/TKO or decision.
Bet: Brown vs. Turman under 2.5 rounds -135/Randy Brown by KO/TKO or submission +115
Rebecki vs. Radzhabov Odds
Mateusz Rebecki -150, Loik Radzhabov +120
Another fight that could potentially be the Fight of the Night is the matchup between Radzhabov and Rebecki. Both want to build on recent wins and implore a heavy wrestling game in their tactics. Radzhabov has been UFC ready for a long time and finally got his chance against Esteban Ribovics on short notice three months ago in March. He dominated that fight with his wrestling but did seem to waver mentally and physically the longer the fight went on. Radzhabov has fought top talent and has been in high-pressure situations with big money on the line, and his only losses have come against the sport’s upper echelon. He’s fought Raush Manfio for a million in the PFL, Natan Schulte (PFL) and Rashid Magomedov (PFL). Perhaps it was because of the short notice appearance that his gas tank was taxed, but if he expects to have success in this fight, he will need to keep his gas tank in check from beginning to end. Radzhabov has been in danger before but never finished. His durability and will to win keep him in fights, but he is very hittable and, at times, patient to a fault, not nearly throwing enough volume to keep fights close.
It usually probably wouldn’t matter against a striker, but for this fight, Radzhabov and Rebecki will likely cancel each other out and create big scrambles trying to take each other down; because of that, the fighter who throws more volume should edge out a win. Rebecki, like Radzhabov, has been UFC ready for quite some time, and before even making his debut on the contender series, he hadn’t lost a fight in seven years. He was stopped once in 2014, and his primary weapon when he strikes is the overhand left. He keeps up a high pace, and even though he’s usually outsized, he’s never outmatched on the ground.
This will be a test for the new prospects, and no matter who wins, it’ll be a treat for the fans in attendance and at home. I will side with Rebecki and say he edges out a split-decision win. Both fighters will have chances and takedowns, but in the end, rebecki is slightly better and doesn’t absorb much damage compared to Loik. He also throws nearly double the significant strikes which will be the difference in close rounds.
Bet: Mateusz Rebecki ML -150/Rebecki by decision +150
Peek vs. Mariscal Odds
Trevor Peek -110, Chepe Mariscal -110
Trevor Peek has never been to the scorecards, and I doubt the new prospect has any intention of starting to win by decision this weekend. Not only has he never been to a decision, but Peek has never been to the third round in any fight as a professional. Now training full-time after receiving a bonus in his debut, we should see the best Peek up to this point in his career. Mariscal has been a professional for a long time and has an edge with his experience. He is currently on a three-fight win streak and making his debut in the ufc against a berserker. Mariscal is a finisher with six wins by knockout (46% of wins) and three wins by submission (23% of wins). This fight should be fireworks for as long as it lasts, and I’m going to side with Peek to welcome the debutant with a bang!
Bet: Trevor Peek ML -110/Trevor Peek by KO/TKO or submission +120
