2023 Academy Awards Betting Guide

With the NFL, NBA, PGA, NHL, MMA and EPL all occupying our attention, there’s one betting area outside of sports overlooked this time of year. Oscars season began Monday morning with nominations for the 95th Academy Awards. The selections brought the usual snubs and surprises, some of which we’ll discuss here. 

Last year, Coda’s surprising late-season push for Best Picture (following a few SAG wins) to surpass early frontrunner The Power of the Dog was one of the quickest ascendances in recent memory, especially after Dog’s win at the Golden Globes. In other words, if you were in early, you got some nice returns. 

This year has its trends in what looks to be a wide-open field. Everything Everywhere All at Once leads all motion pictures with 11 nominations, which can be a mixed bag, depending on the year. Still, it’s likely to find at least two wins in “The Big Six” categories. 

This season’s most stunning surge came with Andrea Riseborough’s nomination for To Leslie. The talented actress inspired a who’s who of Hollywood elites to host screenings of the film and to promote her performance on social media in the weeks leading up to Nomination Monday. Few people have seen this film outside of the most dedicated cinephiles and pundits, yet here she is, with more than a puncher’s chance to take home some well-known hardware.

Oscars betting can, and most often does, deliver volatility in the weeks leading up to the red carpet. FTN’s Mike Talas continues to monitor the news, odds, and current values in one of the year’s most exciting, potentially profitable betting markets. 

All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Bold text denotes my current Oscar betting values.

Best Actress

In my opinion, Best Actress is the can’t-miss contest of the night, and with that are two favorites running close, and a third gaining momentum. These odds could get wild. 

It’s not hyperbolic to say Cate Blanchett’s performance as Lydia Tár, world-famous conductor of the Berlin Philharmonic Orchestra, may be the industry’s most impressive in the 15 years since Daniel Day-Lewis’ portrayal of Daniel Plainview in Paul Thomas Anderson’s masterpiece There Will Be Blood (2007). In one scene, Lydia (Blanchett) approaches a 6- or 7-year-old school bully suspected of harassing her daughter. She approaches, kneels and speaks to the child. Shot at a high angle, often a symbolic concession of power in culture and cinema. However, when Blanchett’s monologue ends with her statement, “God watches all of us,” it caps off a haunting scene that elicits both the fear of modern power and the wrath of angry gods. While the two-time Oscar winner currently has the best odds to win Best Actress, I don’t like the -175 odds at this point in the season, which has more to do with the next two nominees. I expect Blanchett’s odds to improve as we get closer to Oscar night.

For months, Michelle Yeoh appeared to be the only serious contender with any chance to compete with Blanchett, and that may still be the case. Yeoh could become the first Asian woman to win Best Actress for her performance in a film that received praise from the masses and critics alike. Given Yeoh’s career, from Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon phenomto forgotten Bond girl to a memorable and diabolical Crazy Rich Asians mom, she has the resume to win this on career meritocracy alone. She’s coming off a win at the Golden Globes, which has not always been the best predictor for Best Actress, but I still love the plus-money in what could become a boat race between her and Blanchett. Even if the level of performance isn’t quite era-defining, she could edge out Blanchett with a career-arc Oscar similar to Al Pacino (Scent of a Women) and Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant) in previous years. What is the difference between Yeoh and those two legends? Everything Everywhere may be her best film. 

Andrea Riseborough is the career-longshot who could make things interesting down the stretch. To give you a little perspective, when the odds were released shortly after the nomination reveal, Andrea Riseborough opened at +3300 on DraftKings. Now? +1100. How the hype train plays out over the next few weeks will determine where that number goes, but I expect it to settle closer to where Austin Butler is now in the male category by Oscar night. I like this for a low-volume, high-yield sprinkle now, with odds that could continue to come down as we get closer to +500 by the event. 

Best Actor

It’s unusual for me not to have much confidence in a seasoned actor like Brendan Fraser as a frontrunner in a Darren Aronofsky film. Fraser could be 2023’s version of Benedict Cumberbatch, whose hopes were dashed last year after being an early favorite to take home the top acting prize. I think it’s a similar story for Fraser this year, with the unfortunate weight of an inferior film limiting his chances. Tough break for the Hollywood veteran.

I like Colin Farrell and Austin Butler as plays right now. 

Farrell could generate some late buzz with casual film streamers and those busy during the holidays when the film was released. In an odd little corner of early 2023 discourse, this is a beautiful film not just for its setting, performances and script, but also for a surprisingly welcome number of divisive conversations regarding the film. Farrell’s simple, heartfelt performance, combined with a fresh dynamic between him and old pal Brendan Gleeson. 

On the other hand, Butler has remained within striking distance, bo small feat considering Elvis was a film with a wide summer release and his cringy-worthy Golden Globes acceptance speech. With the Presley family’s endorsement of the film, the Best Picture nomination, the streaming availability and the passing of Lisa Marie, it feels like a year this could happen. Of course, we don’t have to think back too far to find a precedent for an actor overcoming an overrated, problematic film and still winning Best Actor. I’m looking at you, Rami Malek. I like Butler’s chances of him making a push with similar long odds to Farrell. 

Best Supporting Actress

I’m fading this category. I don’t love any of the values where they stand. Jaime Lee Curtis and Stephanie Hsu could cancel each other out, leaving Hong Chau as a dark horse value, but I don’t see it. 

It will come down to Bassett, always dazzling in any reprisal of Queen Ramonda but especially in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, and Condon’s sympathetic, pragmatic Siobhán, the lone realist to connect with amid the rich backdrop of a lovingly tragic, simply complex Irish island denoted in the film’s title. 

It’s still Bassett’s to lose, but I don’t love the value. 

Best Supporting Actor

There two passionate camps for Best Supporting Actor bettors this year. 

• Camp 1 (my camp): Ke Huy Quan wins this in a landslide, and it’s never close. 
• Camp 2: Gleeson finishes strong and makes a push to win. 

Nobody else has a shot here, and I don’t like -1000 odds. I adore The Banshees of Inisherin and am a lifelong fan of Gleeson. Like I mentioned earlier, I think this film’s following picks up even more as we get closer to the red carpet, but I don’t think Gleeson does enough over the next few weeks to make up the sizeable gap. Easy win, but it’s a stay-away for me.

Best Director

This category has Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert as slight favorites over Steven Spielberg in what’s shaping up to be one of the more intriguing “two-artist” sprints this year. 

I was surprised to see Spielberg as a slight dog in his contest against Kwan and Scheinert, but the buzz surrounding Everything Everywhere All at Once is apparent with its Oscar-leading 11 nominations. I’m fading the Daniels altogether in this category because I think this line is off. I can see a logical path to Everything Everywhere taking Best Picture and Best Film Editing but losing out for Best Director. 

Spielberg’s The Fablemans is a love letter to his childhood wonder, a nod to his cinematic role models, and the embellished beauty of storytelling. The Hitchcock nod in the film’s First Act is a personal favorite, so Spielbergian in its expertly crafted crispness. For the legend’s entire career, he has made two of the best World War II films of all time and multiple blockbusters still beloved today seem… easy? I think he should be the favorite for Best Director in what will likely be the Academy’s swan song to one of the most impressive careers in Hollywood. I’m smashing this before it dips. 

Best Picture

My personal rules about Best Picture: Unless you have strong convictions about any particular film in this category, it should only be peppered with proportionate, small bets or not played at all. 

Everything Everywhere is the current frontrunner to win Best Picture with The Banshees of Inisherin as a not-too-distant second, one more than capable of closing the gap prior to Oscar Sunday. These may shift slightly, but I’m fading the two favorites in this category unless Everything Everywhere gets closer to even odds.

For this category, I like the small investment values of Top Gun: Maverick, The Fablemans and Tár. All of these films have outside chances to win outright and pick up some momentum late in the season. 

How many times have you seen Top Gun: Maverick? Twice for me. The crowd-favorite TG:M may have more of a shot than the odds indicate. Let’s start with the fact that Tom Cruise has never won an Oscar. With the pattern of his career over the last fifteen years and what’s on the horizon for his acting career in the near future, this could be his best opportunity to add the elusive Oscar as a producer. It has a shot. 

The Fablemans is just a good movie. It’s crafted by one of the greats of a now aging “Film School Generation” and has an outside chance to add another Best Picture to Spielberg’s career. 

The value I love the most is Tár in the Best Picture category. It’s my favorite film of the year, a modern allegory of power’s insatiable but fleeting nature, and one that could stand as a symbol of this generation’s zeitgeist. The film is streaming on Paramount+ and, while it is a long shot, I think this could be the best odds of the season for the film. 

Each week, I will update the odds and make a few new notes on rising and falling values, and in the week leading up to the Oscars, I will give my final predictions.