Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
After kicking off the new year with Sean Strickland vs. Nassourdine Imavov in Vegas, the UFC Touches down in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, for this year’s first PPV, UFC 283. The main event features Glover Texeira vs. Jamahal Hill, and they will fight for the vacant Light Heavyweight championship belt. This matchup was never on anyone’s radar, but after Ankalaev and Blachowicz fought to a draw, it gave way to Glover getting an opportunity to get his belt back and Jamahal Hill his first attempt at the title. The co-main event is also packed with fireworks when flyweights Brandon Moreno and Deiveson Figueiredo face off for the fourth time in hopes of finally crowning an undisputed champion.
Also on the main card is the clash between two vets when Gilbert Burns faces off against Neil Magny in a battle for the top contender spot. Two champions will be crowned after this weekend, and I couldn’t be more excited to watch it all unfold. Below I will break down my favorite fights from the slate and provide a best bet for each. All of the odds and bets mentioned are from the BetMGM Sportsbook app.
Teixeira vs Hill Odds
Glover Teixeira (+115) vs. Jamahal Hill (-140)
The UFC touches down in Brazil for the first PPV event of 2023 that features two championship bouts and fights that set up the contenders of the future. For Jamahal Hill this fight is simple. For him to have success against Glover, he is going to have to keep this fight standing and at a distance so that he can land his long-range combos and look for a clean shot to send Glover into retirement on a stretcher. Hill is 11-1 as a professional with one no-contest and has only been to the judge’s scorecard once during his time with the UFC. Only one out of his last five fights have gone past the second round and that fight ended in the fourth round the first time Jamal featured in a main event against Thiago Santos. In that fight, Jamal was able to find a finish in a close fight that could’ve gone either way with the most surprising stat being how Santos was able to get Hill to the ground six times.
He wasn’t able to produce much control time, but he was able to get Hill to the mat and create a break in Hill’s rhythm. Santos historically averages less than a single takedown when he fights and was able to take Hill down six times with ease. That is why I will be going with Glover in this matchup. Glover not only has the experience, but he also has experience fighting at the top of the division and against power punchers like Hill. Not to mention, Glover has been training/sparring with current middleweight champion Alex Pereira. If you think he doesn’t have power, you can ask former middleweight champion Israel Adesanya what he thinks. I expect Hill to come out on fire in the first round and to go for the kill early. He averages a high output at 6.46 significant strikes per minute, and to date this will be his toughest test. Glover will have to get through the storm or simply get this fight to the mat quickly to limit a storm from ever occurring. I believe Glover’s experience as a jiu-jitsu black belt will be the difference against a powerful, young and hungry striker who is only a blue belt if this hits the ground. Glover may not get the finish on the first try, but I do expect Glover to take the path of least resistance and drown Jamahal.
The Bet: Glover Teixeira ML (+115) / Glover by Sub or Dec. (+160)
Figueiredo vs Moreno Odds
Deiveson Figueiredo (+105) vs. Brandon Moreno (-120)
This fight will make history when the two competitors step into the Octagon for a fourth time to settle the score. The first matchup ended in a draw that was quite controversial because of a point deduction early on in the fight. The second fight showed that Moreno had learned from his mistakes and found a submission finish in the third round. Moreno has fought Figgy three out of the last five fights with a break in the action coming when Moreno fought for the interim belt against contender Kai Kara France. The fight was supposed to be with Figueiredo, but an injury kept him sidelined. Instead of waiting, Moreno stepped up and showed the world and Figueiredo his improvements. He ended up stopping Kara France in the third round with strikes, becoming interim champ and leaving Figueiredo with no excuses or places to hide. Moreno is going into enemy territory for this fight, and if he is anything less than perfect, he will have a tough time finding a win on the scorecard against a hometown hero. Moreno is the only one to have found a finish in this matchup, and it is why I believe he can do it again this weekend.
Sure, Figgy can find a knockout with the power he possesses, but this isn’t the first time these guys fight, and it isn’t the first time that Moreno has felt the power. Anything can happen when wearing four-ounce gloves, but it is less likely to happen when you’ve fought someone already three times and they haven’t shown any improvements other than mixing in some counter wrestling.
Moreno has seen all that Figueiredo has to offer, and if that isn’t enough, throw in the fact that Moreno can keep his pace up from Round 1 to Round 5 with zero decline. Deiveson is two days out from his weigh-ins and already looks uncomfortable. It can be an issue if there are a lot of scrambles in this fight and it goes into the deeper rounds. The power and speed will be there early for Deiveson, and even though Moreno doesn’t have the same power, he is faster and has a bigger gas tank. He has also has been working his boxing with world-class trainers who’ve trained the likes of Canelo. I see Moreno being the more complete fighter and see this fight going the distance.
The Bet: Brandon Moreno -120 / Moreno vs Figueiredo o4.5 Rds. (-155)
Burns vs. Magny Odds
Gilbert Burns (-500) vs. Neil Magny (+360)
Burns is 3-2 in his last five fights with the most notable performance being against Khamzat Chimaev. Burns put the world on notice when he stepped in against the big bad wolf and not only held his own but almost won and showed that Chimaev was human after all. After that fight not many challengers came knocking on Gilbert’s door and for good reason. He is a dangerous fighter with a background in jiu-jitsu at a very high level. Burns also carries fight-ending power which makes him a handful for any challenger.
Neil Magny is also 3-2 in his last five fights and brings to this fight a wealth of knowledge and experience against top guys in the division. Magny is never one to shy away from a fight and actually had challenged Chimaev after watching him fight Burns. Magny is big for the division, and in this fight has a five-inch height advantage along with a nine-inch reach advantage that will have to be put to good use if he hopes to make it out a winner. Magny is well-rounded and on any night can beat anyone, but in this fight and against Burns in his hometown I don’t think he’s going to have much success.
Yes, I believe that Burns will get touched up a bit, but I also believe that Burns is durable enough to take the strikes coming his way and throw back power and combos that will be too much for Magny to handle. If Magny can keep this fight at a distance and off the mats, I believe he can pull out a split decision win or maybe even a stoppage if Burns gasses out. But in Brazil, in front of his hometown crowd, I think Burns will roll and find a finish in this one.
The Bet: Gilbert Burns by KO/TKO or Submission (+100)
Andrade vs. Murphy Odds
Jessica Andrade (-460) vs. Lauren Murphy (+370)
This fight is a classic striker vs. grappler matchup and not because Andrade can’t grapple. Along with her jiu-jitsu black belt, she has power that can sleep most men on earth, and for that reason I see Andrade having success and even finding a finish early. If you were to tell me that Andrade solely depended on her power to end fights, then I can understand a case for Murphy, but the fact is that Murphy is in a lot of trouble if she decides to stand and box with Andrade.
Even with a four-inch height advantage and five-inch reach advantage, Murphy is going to have to close the distance and get this fight to the ground if she hopes to slow down Andrade and perhaps try to create situations that tire the muscular frame of Andrade. Another concerning fact is how Murphy’s takedown accuracy is only at 34%, which means to me that most of her jiu-jitsu comes off her back and not because she initiated the takedowns. Andrade averages nearly three takedowns per fight, and her takedown accuracy is over 50%. Andrade might be the smaller fighter in this matchup, but the power and overall well-roundedness should be enough to get her past Murphy and any sub attempts she may have. Give me Andrade to find a finish in this one and make a statement in front of her hometown fans and family.
The Bets: Jessica Andrade by KO/TKO or Sub (+100) / Andrade in rounds 1 or 2 (+140)
Rodrigues vs. Ferreira Odds
Brunno Ferreira (+240) vs. Gregory Rodrigues (-300)
Considering the fact that both of these fighters have less than 10 minutes of fight time combined, I’d say it’s safe to assume this fight will not be going to the judge’s scorecard. Rodrigues is the bigger, longer and more experienced fighter of the two. He has a five-inch reach advantage along with a three-inch reach advantage that will be the determining factor in this fight. Rodrigues also has his wrestling to lean on, as he averages 2.39 takedowns per 15 minutes. So, if the Hulk starts to become trouble for Rodrigues, then he can switch gears and take this fight to the mat.
Ferreira is a brawler who possesses the ability to finish by submission or send his opponents to the shadow realm with strikes. After his debut on The Contender Series, Ferreira got his contract into the UFC and now faces his toughest test to date. This matchup doesn’t have much variety, and even a blind man can see that this fight is going to end violently and early.
The Bets: Ferreira vs. Rodrigues u1.5 (-185) / Rodrigues in Rd. 1 or 2 (-175) / Rodrigues in Rd. 1 (-110)
G. Bonfim vs. Lazzez Odds
Gabriel Bonfim (-190) vs. Mounir Lazzez (+155)
Two very high-level strikers with the power and speed to end the fight at any moment. The difference in this fight will be about the well-roundedness of Bonfim against the high-level kick boxing of Lazzez. Bonfim is a high-level striker but possesses his skill in the boxing department. He averages 6.27 significant stakes per minute while attempting nearly four takedowns per 15 minutes.
Those takedowns will be the difference in this fight going up against an opponent with a four-inch reach advantage. Bonfim also boasts 100% takedown accuracy, which indicates to me that he is capable of getting this fight to the ground. What scares me about Bonfim is what he will do if he doesn’t have success early on with the takedowns. If he abandons that path to victory and decides to brawl, it could end badly for Bonfim, as Lazzez possesses kicks in his arsenal that complete a very high-level kickboxing skill set.
Lazzez averages 7.40 significant strikes landed per minute and also attempts nearly two takedowns per 15 minutes while defending takedowns 71% percent of the time. If Lazzez can keep this fight standing long enough to produce good output and put Bonfim in dangerous situations, I can see why people make a case for Lazzez. Still, I will be riding with the hometown kid in hopes that he does find the takedown and it makes the difference in this matchup.
The Bets: G. Bonfim ML (-179) / Bonfim in Rd. 3 or Dec (+250)
McKinney vs. I. Bonfim Odds
Terrance McKinney (-140) vs. Ismael Bonfim (+110)
Both of these guys can scrap and both have fight-ending power with the patience and well-roundedness favoring Bonfim. McKinney is also well-rounded, but when you have a death touch like he does, not many fights go long enough for him to display his skill set. McKinney averages nearly five significant strikes per minute and has been in the cage less than an entire round, averaging only two minutes and 56 seconds of fight time.
Bonfim also has a high output and nearly averages six significant strikes per minute. The big difference is that Bonfim is more reserved and brawls less, averaging 15 minutes of fight time. As much as I’d love to go with Bonfim in this one, I have to respect not only the power of McKinney but also the fact that he’s able to wrestle and also find submissions when the situation calls for it.
If McKinney doesn’t try to force the knockout punches and limits his mistakes, I can see this fight maybe going past the first round and even maybe to a decision based on the patience of McKinney and durability of Bonfim. Either way, this should be a contender for fight of the night and has been circled on my calendar for months now.
The Bets: Terrance McKinney ML (-140) / McKinney vs Bonfim o 1.5 Rds. (+185)
