Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Mark AndrewsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Bengals vs. Ravens
Right now, Mark Andrews’s receiving yards prop is set at 54.5 yards (-125/-105).
The public has bet the OVER up to 54.5 (-125) after it opened @ 48.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Ravens are a big 8.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
- The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- Mark Andrews has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this year (94.1% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (84.1%).
- THE BLITZ projects Mark Andrews to accrue 8.6 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 100th percentile among TEs.
- The Baltimore Ravens O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens as the least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 54.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Ravens to call the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Mark Andrews has posted far fewer air yards this year (79.0 per game) than he did last year (96.0 per game).
- Mark Andrews has put up significantly fewer receiving yards per game (58.0) this season than he did last season (82.0).
- The Cincinnati Bengals defense has conceded the 3rd-least receiving yards per game in football (just 35.0) versus TEs this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
58
Receiving Yards
58
Receiving Yards
