NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Skylar ThompsonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Dolphins vs. Jets
Right now, Skylar Thompson’s passing yards prop is set at 179.5 yards (-109/-125).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 179.5 (-125) after it opened @ 182.5 (-113).
Pros
- The Miami Dolphins will be starting backup QB Skylar Thompson in this week’s contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 10th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 63.8% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to run the 4th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 68.0 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The New York Jets have stacked the box vs. opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The Miami Dolphins have utilized play action on 33.9% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (2nd-most in football), causing the defense to bite on the run and resulting in much higher passing production.
Cons
- The Dolphins are a 4-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
- The Miami Dolphins have run the 4th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 53.6 plays per game.
- Opposing offenses have passed for the 4th-least yards in the NFL (just 213.0 per game) vs. the New York Jets defense this year.
- Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 5th-lowest level in football vs. the New York Jets defense this year (67.4%).
- The New York Jets pass defense has exhibited good efficiency this year, conceding 6.92 yards-per-target: the 3rd-least in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
231
Passing Yards
231
Passing Yards
