Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jeff WilsonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Dolphins vs. Jets
Right now, Jeff Wilson’s rushing yards prop is set at 53.5 yards (+100/-130).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 53.5 (-130) after it opened @ 61.5 (-113).
Pros
- The Dolphins are a 4-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to run the 4th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 68.0 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Jeffery Wilson to accrue 13.0 carries in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 79th percentile among RBs.
- Jeffery Wilson has been a more important option in his team’s running game this year (48.1% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (27.9%).
- Jeffery Wilson has averaged 53.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the biggest marks in the league among running backs (75th percentile).
Cons
- The Miami Dolphins will be starting backup QB Skylar Thompson in this week’s contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 9th-least run-oriented team in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 36.2% run rate.
- The Miami Dolphins have run the 4th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 53.6 plays per game.
- The New York Jets defense has had the 6th-best efficiency against opposing run games this year, surrendering just 4.25 yards-per-carry.
- The New York Jets defensive tackles profile as the 3rd-best group of DTs in football this year when it comes to run defense.
Projection
THE BLITZ
56
Rushing Yards
56
Rushing Yards
