Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
D’Andre SwiftRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Packers vs. Lions
Right now, D’Andre Swift’s rushing yards prop is set at 33.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 33.5 (-110) after it opened @ 34.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Detroit Lions offensive line grades out as the 6th-best in the NFL this year at opening holes for runners.
- D’Andre Swift’s rushing effectiveness has gotten a boost this year, notching 5.66 yards-per-carry vs just 3.76 figure last year.
- D’Andre Swift has been among the best RBs in the NFL at grinding out extra running yardage, averaging a terrific 3.17 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 76th percentile.
- Opposing offenses have run for the 6th-most yards in the NFL (141 per game) vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year.
- The Green Bay Packers linebackers project as the 5th-worst collection of LBs in football this year in regard to defending the run.
Cons
- The Lions are a 4.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- D’Andre Swift has been a less important option in his team’s run game this season (25.9% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (50.3%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
31
Rushing Yards
31
Rushing Yards
