Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
DK MetcalfReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Seahawks vs. Rams
Right now, DK Metcalf’s receiving yards prop is set at 68.5 yards (-115/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 68.5 (-115) after it opened @ 65.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the 8th-most pass-heavy team in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 64.3% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects DK Metcalf to accrue 9.0 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 96th percentile among WRs.
- DK Metcalf has compiled quite a few more air yards this season (103.0 per game) than he did last season (96.0 per game).
- DK Metcalf’s 68.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the league: 96th percentile for WRs.
- The Los Angeles Rams defense has conceded the 7th-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (161.0) versus WRs this year.
Cons
- The Seahawks are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-least plays run on the slate this week at 127.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- DK Metcalf’s talent in picking up extra yardage have worsened this season, accumulating a measly 2.90 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 3.97 figure last season.
- The Los Angeles Rams defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-fastest in football since the start of last season.
- The Seattle Seahawks have faced a stacked the box on a mere 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
67
Receiving Yards
67
Receiving Yards
