Week 18 Player Props: Passing Yards for Geno Smith from EV Insight

Geno SmithPassing Yards

Right now, Geno Smith’s passing yards prop is set at 240.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 240.5 (-110) after it opened @ 238.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the 8th-most pass-heavy team in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 64.3% pass rate.
Geno Smith has been among the top passers in the NFL this year, averaging a terrific 259.0 yards per game while grading out in the 83rd percentile.
Geno Smith has been among the most accurate quarterbacks in the NFL this year with an impressive 70.2% Completion%, grading out in the 97th percentile.
Geno Smith has been among the most effective passers in the league this year, averaging a terrific 7.66 yards-per-target while checking in at the 75th percentile.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 10th-highest rate in the NFL versus the Los Angeles Rams defense this year (72.0%).

Cons

The Seahawks are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-least plays run on the slate this week at 127.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Rams defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-fastest in football since the start of last season.
The Seattle Seahawks have faced a stacked the box on a mere 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Los Angeles Rams have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 5.9% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Projection

THE BLITZ
239
Passing Yards