Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Baker MayfieldPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Seahawks vs. Rams
Right now, Baker Mayfield’s passing yards prop is set at 187.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 187.5 (-110) after it opened @ 182.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Los Angeles Rams will be rolling out backup quarterback Baker Mayfield in this week’s game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- The Rams are a 5.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- Baker Mayfield’s throwing accuracy has been refined this season, with his Completion% increasing from 61.9% to 66.0%.
- The Seattle Seahawks pass defense has exhibited poor efficiency this year, conceding 8.02 yards-per-target: the 10th-most in football.
- The Seattle Seahawks defense has not been good when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 6.15 yards-after-the-catch this year: the most in the NFL.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Rams to run the 4th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Los Angeles Rams have called the 6th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 54.3 plays per game.
- Baker Mayfield has attempted just 9.6 throws per game this year, grading out in the 6th percentile among quarterbacks.
- Opposing teams have averaged 33.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 9th-least in the league.
- The Los Angeles Rams offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
208
Passing Yards
208
Passing Yards
