Week 18 Player Props: Passing Yards for Joe Burrow from EV Insight

Joe BurrowPassing Yards

Right now, Joe Burrow’s passing yards prop is set at 256.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 256.5 (-110) after it opened @ 264.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 8th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 61.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Joe Burrow has attempted 38.6 passes per game this year, ranking in the 86th percentile among QBs.
Joe Burrow has thrown for substantially more yards per game (294.0) this year than he did last year (266.0).
Opposing quarterbacks have passed for the 4th-most yards in the league (261.0 per game) versus the Baltimore Ravens defense this year.

Cons

The Bengals are a 6.5-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Baltimore Ravens safeties grade out as the 7th-best safety corps in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line has afforded their quarterback just 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
The Baltimore Ravens defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 5th-fastest in the league since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
259
Passing Yards