Week 18 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Joe Mixon from EV Insight

Joe MixonRushing Yards

Right now, Joe Mixon’s rushing yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (+100/-125).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 52.5 (-125) after it opened @ 52.5 (-115).

Pros

The Bengals are a 6.5-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to earn 13.3 rush attempts this week, on average, ranking him in the 80th percentile among RBs.
Joe Mixon has grinded out 64.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the largest marks in the NFL among RBs (86th percentile).

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 8th-least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 38.4% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to be a much smaller piece of his offense’s run game this week (54.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (74.4% in games he has played).
Opposing squads have rushed for the 3rd-least yards in football (just 95 per game) vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
57
Rushing Yards