Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Joe MixonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Bengals vs. Ravens
Right now, Joe Mixon’s rushing yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (+100/-125).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 52.5 (-125) after it opened @ 52.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Bengals are a 6.5-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to earn 13.3 rush attempts this week, on average, ranking him in the 80th percentile among RBs.
- Joe Mixon has grinded out 64.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the largest marks in the NFL among RBs (86th percentile).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 8th-least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 38.4% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to be a much smaller piece of his offense’s run game this week (54.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (74.4% in games he has played).
- Opposing squads have rushed for the 3rd-least yards in football (just 95 per game) vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
57
Rushing Yards
57
Rushing Yards
