Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Travis KelceReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Raiders vs. Chiefs
Right now, Travis Kelce’s receiving yards prop is set at 74.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 74.5 (-110) after it opened @ 76.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 2nd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 67.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Travis Kelce has run a route on 82.9% of his offense’s dropbacks this year, placing him in the 99th percentile among TEs.
- Travis Kelce has been among the leading pass-catching TEs this year, averaging a stellar 82.0 yards per game while grading out in the 100th percentile.
- The Las Vegas Raiders have stacked the box vs. opponents on 21.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- The Chiefs are a heavy 8.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have gone up against a stacked the box on just 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a lowly 1.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have elected to go for it on 4th down a mere 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (3rd-least in the league), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
89
Receiving Yards
89
Receiving Yards
