Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Mike Gesicki from EV Insight

Mike GesickiReceiving Yards

Right now, Mike Gesicki’s receiving yards prop is set at 12.5 yards (-110/-120).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 12.5 (-120) after it opened @ 12.5 (-110).

Pros

The Miami Dolphins will be forced to use backup quarterback Teddy Bridgewater this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Dolphins are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 10th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 61.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 39.3 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 2nd-most in football.
Mike Gesicki’s receiving efficiency has gotten better this season, compiling 8.40 yards-per-target compared to just 6.84 mark last season.

Cons

The Miami Dolphins have run the least plays in football this year, totaling a measly 52.9 plays per game.
Mike Gesicki has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (54.5% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (78.3%).
Mike Gesicki has posted far fewer air yards this season (28.0 per game) than he did last season (56.0 per game).
Mike Gesicki has notched substantially fewer receiving yards per game (23.0) this year than he did last year (43.0).
Mike Gesicki has been among the most unreliable receivers in the league among TEs, catching just 65.4% of balls thrown his way this year, checking in at the 22nd percentile.

Projection

THE BLITZ
16
Receiving Yards