NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
T.J. HockensonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Packers vs. Vikings
Right now, T.J. Hockenson’s receiving yards prop is set at 46.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 46.5 (-110) after it opened @ 47.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 6.2% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- The Vikings are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 3rd-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 64.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.75 seconds per snap.
- THE BLITZ projects T.J. Hockenson to total 8.2 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 99th percentile among tight ends.
Cons
- Opposing offenses have averaged 29.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 2nd-least in football.
- The Minnesota Vikings O-line profiles as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
- T.J. Hockenson has notched significantly fewer receiving yards per game (23.0) this season than he did last season (48.0).
- T.J. Hockenson’s receiving efficiency has diminished this year, notching a measly 5.10 yards-per-target compared to a 7.11 rate last year.
- The Green Bay Packers defense has yielded the 5th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 38.0) vs. tight ends this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
47
Receiving Yards
47
Receiving Yards
