Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Josh AllenPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Lions vs. Bills
Right now, Josh Allen’s passing yards prop is set at 285.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the OVER up to 285.5 (-110) after it opened @ 261.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.3% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 5th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 63.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- Josh Allen has thrown for substantially more yards per game (292.0) this season than he did last season (249.0).
- Opposing teams have completed passes at the 4th-highest clip in football against the Detroit Lions defense this year (74.1%).
Cons
- The Bills are a heavy 9.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 2nd-most sluggish paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 29.23 seconds per snap.
- The Buffalo Bills have been faced with a stacked the box on just 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
319
Passing Yards
319
Passing Yards
