Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jonathan TaylorRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Colts vs. Commanders
Right now, Jonathan Taylor’s rushing yards prop is set at 74.5 yards (-115/-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-most plays run on the slate this week at 129.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Indianapolis Colts have run the 3rd-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 64.7 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Jonathan Taylor to earn 18.4 rush attempts in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 93rd percentile among RBs.
- The Indianapolis Colts have elected to go for it on 4th down 23.6% of the time since the start of last season (7th-most in the league), which typically means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.
Cons
- The Indianapolis Colts will be rolling out backup quarterback Sam Ehlinger in this week’s game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- The Colts have been the 10th-least run-heavy offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 35.8% run rate.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Jonathan Taylor to be much less involved in his team’s running game this week (65.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (82.4% in games he has played).
- Jonathan Taylor has rushed for a lot fewer yards per game (77.0) this year than he did last year (116.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
90
Rushing Yards
90
Rushing Yards
