Week 8 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Jonathan Taylor from EV Insight

Jonathan TaylorRushing Yards

Right now, Jonathan Taylor’s rushing yards prop is set at 74.5 yards (-115/-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-most plays run on the slate this week at 129.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts have run the 3rd-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 64.7 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Jonathan Taylor to earn 18.4 rush attempts in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 93rd percentile among RBs.
The Indianapolis Colts have elected to go for it on 4th down 23.6% of the time since the start of last season (7th-most in the league), which typically means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

Cons

The Indianapolis Colts will be rolling out backup quarterback Sam Ehlinger in this week’s game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Colts have been the 10th-least run-heavy offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 35.8% run rate.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Jonathan Taylor to be much less involved in his team’s running game this week (65.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (82.4% in games he has played).
Jonathan Taylor has rushed for a lot fewer yards per game (77.0) this year than he did last year (116.0).

Projection

THE BLITZ
90
Rushing Yards