NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Tyler AllgeierRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Buccaneers vs. Falcons
Right now, Tyler Allgeier’s rushing yards prop is set at 44.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 44.5 (-120) after it opened @ 45.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 7th-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 44.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Tyler Allgeier to be a more integral piece of his offense’s run game this week (42.4% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (30.0% in games he has played).
- The Atlanta Falcons O-line ranks as the best in the NFL this year at run-game blocking.
- Tyler Allgeier’s ground effectiveness (5.26 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league this year (79th percentile among RBs).
Cons
- The Falcons are a heavy 10-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.
- The Atlanta Falcons have run the 5th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 53.2 plays per game.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties grade out as the 2nd-best safety corps in football this year with their run defense.
- The Atlanta Falcons have been faced with a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
54
Rushing Yards
54
Rushing Yards
