NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Devin SingletaryRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Rams vs. Bills
Right now, Devin Singletary’s rushing yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (+112/-154).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 45.5 (-154) after it opened @ 51.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 128.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Buffalo Bills have run the 3rd-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 65.8 plays per game.
- Devin Singletary’s rushing efficiency (4.66 yards per carry) has been some of the best in football since the start of last season (80th percentile among RBs).
- The Buffalo Bills have faced a stacked the box on a measly 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Los Angeles Rams have stacked the box against opponents on just 5.9% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 4th-least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 35.3% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Buffalo Bills have played in the most “bad weather” (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to lead to higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved offense effectiveness when facing better conditions this week.
- The weatherman calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Devin Singletary to be a less important option in his team’s running game this week (35.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (50.6% in games he has played).
- The Los Angeles Rams defensive ends profile as the best collection of DEs in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.
Projection
THE BLITZ
37
Rushing Yards
37
Rushing Yards
