UFC London MMA Betting Odds

Another week, another action-packed UFC fight card. This week, we are in London for UFC Fight Night 208. Below, we’re taking a look at every fight from a betting perspective, making out picks and identifying key stats to know. 

All the stats below come from UFCstats.com, and odds are from BetMGM.

Silva vs. Dalby Odds

Claudio Silva +200, Nicolas Dalby -250

Silva and Dalby kick off UFC London as the first bout on the slate. Claudio is 5-foot-11 with a 71-inch reach, landing 2.80 strikes per minute at a 41% rate. He absorbs 3.0 strikes per minute and defends those strikes 44% of the time. Silva averages 11:22 of fight time in the cage, as he works with every fiber of his being to get the fight to the mat. Silva averages 2.62 takedowns per fight at a 25% rate, numbers that seem low for a Brazilian jiujitsu specialist.

Two takedowns a fight seems low for a fighter like Silva, yet I like to think its cause the moment he takes his opponents down they rarely get back to their feet. His jiujitsu is world class and as a IBJJF world champion, Silva’s control and transitions through submission have made the difference in many of his fights. He does not throw many punches when standing, in fact he may only throw one or two overhand punches in hopes of stunning his opponent and finding his entry to the legs for a takedown. He is very much submission or bust, and if his gas tank fades because of all the sub/takedown attempts, this should be an easy win for Dalby.

Dalby is identical in terms of height and has a reach advantage of three inches. He averages 3.25 strikes per minute and is accurate on 38% of his strikes. He absorbs 3.55 strikes per minute while defending 54% of the strikes thrown his way. His movement and karate style make it difficult for his opponents to cleanly connect and put him in danger and if they try and take him down, he defends the takedown 65% of the time making him very well rounded. He only attempts 1.22 takedowns per fight. and in this bout, I can’t see him trying many takedowns on a fighter like Silva, who hopes this fight takes place on the ground.

The best round for Silva will be the first round, as his gas tank will be full and both fighters dry. If Dalby can get out of the first round clean, his chances of winning increase while Silva loses steam. Considering both fighters are very durable and have 10-plus minutes of fight time, if there is a finish, I could see it happening late in the third round, otherwise this one goes to the judges for a Dalby decision win. I wouldn’t be surprised though if Silva comes out in the first round and chokes Dalby to sleep.

Bet: Dalby by points (+125), 1u

Bohm vs. Leonardo Odds

Mandy Bohm -130, Victoria Leonard +104

Bohm is 0-1 in the UFC and 7-1-0 overall in her professional career. She is the first female fighter out of Germany and is looking to make a name for herself in her second bout for the promotion. Bohm has fought on a relatively big stage in the past as she has seen minutes inside the Bellator cage. She is not a stranger to the bright lights of a big promotion, so any big-cage jitters should be gone for UFC London.

Bohm has a 71-inch reach and averages 2.3 strikes per minute while being accurate 33% of the time. A bit concerning is the 5.8 strikes per minute she absorbs; she does boast a 55% rate of defense on the feet but tends to leave her chin in the air as she walks her opponents down. She rarely attempts any takedowns but does boast a 100% takedown defense, which could be skewed considering she’s only fought once in the UFC.

Leonardo has a 64-inch reach and lands 3.70 strikes per minute while being accurate 41% of the time. Similar to Bohm, she absorbs 5.1 strikes per minute and with such a disadvantage in the reach department it may be more this weekend. Unlike Bohm she does attempt at least one takedown per fight as she tends to grind her opponents against the cage looking for the transition to the ground and onto her opponents’ backs.

The fighter who can stick to the gameplan best wins this fight; if Bohm can play with her range and reach advantage and defend the takedown well, she can win and maybe even find the stoppage. If Leonardo can find a takedown and dominate on the ground, she may find a rear naked choke or sweaty decision win when she lands a pivotal takedown in the third. In this fight with Bohm choosing to body lock her opponents from bottom position at times, I’ll lean with the dog here and look to hit some plus money.

Bet: Victoria Leonardo ML (+105), 1u

Herbert vs. Nelson Odds

Jai Herbert -285, Kyle Nelson +230

Herbert and Nelson square off in the slate’s third bout. Herbert is a veteran in the octagon but not in the UFC, as he is currently 1-3-0 in the UFC and 11-4-0 overall. The UFC has done Herbert no favors, as every fighter he’s fought thus far has been part of the top 15 in the division. UFC London will be the first time Herbert fights a non-ranked opponent. At 6-foot-1 with a 77-inch reach, Herbert is the taller and much rangier fighter, landing 2.46 strikes per min. at a 36% rate, he does not look for many takedowns but is capable of pinning his opponents down and creating damage if the fight goes there. He absorbs 2.91 strikes per minute and defends 45% of the strikes thrown his way.

Herbert is looking to right the ship and get a win in front of his fans. An ex-cage warriors champion, he is no stranger to getting into wars and coming out victorious. Yet, in the UFC only one of his four bouts has ended with his hand raised, and the rest have ended with him being finished. Could It be the big show and the world’s best athletes finally exposing Herbert or is he just having bad luck and simply getting caught?

Kyle Nelson makes the trip to London in hopes of reintroducing himself to the UFC fans and making a statement when he enters the octagon against Herbert. At 5-foot-11 with a 71-inch reach, Nelson lands 3.63 strikes per minute at a 41% rate, he averages 0.95 takedowns at a 12% rate and defends takedowns 60% of the time. Nelson last fought in 2020 and similar to Herbert is 1-3-0 so far in the UFC. His toughest opponent was Billy Quarantillo in 2020 — not to discredit any of his opponents, but they just weren’t part of the top 15 like the opponents of Herbert. Another familiar stat is that Nelson has yet to see the scorecards, which makes this fight a treat for the fans and even more so for the bettors looking for a KO prop or a FDGTD prop.

After watching the tape and various interviews, the bet for me will be Jai Herbert to win by KO/TKO (-112) and with the odds for the fight to not go the distance being the same as taking Herbert ML. I will be Betting the FDGTD prop (-285) and pairing it in a two-leg parlay and avoiding any flash knockouts like we witnessed in Herbert’s’ last fight against Topuria. Both fighters average 7 minutes of fight time and are out to prove a point and get back in the win column in exciting fashion this weekend in London.

Bet: Herbert by KO/TKO (-112), 1u; Parlay piece: FDGTD (-285)

Mokaev vs. Johnson Odds

Muhammad Mokaev -490, Charles Johnson +360

This highly anticipated fight featured the UFC’s potential new superstar in Mokaev. At just 21 years old, he is 5-foot-7 with a 70-inch reach and averages 2.1 strikes per minute at 40% accuracy. He uses his movement well and absorbs 1.02 strikes per minute, defending strikes thrown at him 80% of the time. Mokaev may only be 7-0-0 as a professional, but with an amateur record of 23-0-0, experience is not something Mokaev is lacking. Currently on a 30-fight win streak, Mokaev heads into this bout determined to prove the hype is real after an emphatic win in his first bout where Mokaev dispensed of Cody Durden in less than a minute. Fans are hoping for the same result in London where Mokaev was raised and trained from the age of 12.

Stepping in to play spoiler is Charles Johnson, who is 5-foot-9 with a 70-inch reach, is the taller, rangier fighter looking to put a halt to the Mokaev hype train. The more experienced fighter as a pro, Johnson fights out of a switch Thai stance. He leads his strikes with kicks and looks to open up his opponents by heavily attacking the body first then mixing in straight right hands and counter hooks. He brings a lot of volume and forward pressure backing up his opponents with teep kicks into the cage. Considering time spent as a pro, Johnson has an edge over Mokaev in that department. Keep in mind that some of Mokaev’s bouts were in question for record padding and his first fight in the UFC against Cody Durden was set to be his first real challenge, a challenge he finished in less than 60 seconds. Johnson in my opinion proves to be the first real test for Mokaev as he provides a challenge for Mokaev in the striking department and training with the likes of Sean Brady and Jordan Burroughs in his camp; Johnson should be more than ready for Mokaev’s grappling prowess. 

Bet: Mokaev/Johnson over 2.5 rounds (+105), 1u

Pearce vs. Amirkhani Odds

Jonathan Pearce -210, Makwan Amirkhani +170

Pearce and Amirkhani enter with similar styles, so the table is set for a brawl-and-sprawl type of affair. Pearce is 6-foot-0 with a 71-inch reach and lands 4.99 strikes per min while absorbing 4.10 strikes per minute. Pearce’s defense against strikes thrown at him is at 48%, and he averages 6.78 takedowns per fight at a 58% rate and defends takedowns 60% of the time. Pearce is a workhorse whose durability and grit have shown to be his main weapons apart from his wrestling chops. He is currently on a three-fight win streak and is 4-1-0 in the UFC with neither of his fights reaching the judges. Overall, Pearce is 12-4-0 and is no stranger to the cage. He brings a grinding style to the octagon and looks to outpace and break his opponents while attempting 1.2 submissions a fight. He doesn’t possess one-punch KO power but with volume and sheer grit, Pearce will be looking to break Amirkhani’s will this weekend in London.

Amirkhani similarly has a wrestling background, which has been evident since his debut way back in 2015. He is known as a submission specialist and does not shy away from his style. At 5-foot-10 with a 72-inch reach, Amirkhani lands 1.36 strikes per minute with an accuracy of 43% while absorbing 2.42 strikes per minute and defending 51% of strikes thrown at him. When the fight hits the ground, Amirkhani averages 4.07 takedowns, accurately taking his opponents down 43% of the time. He defends 50% of takedown attempted and averages 1.1 submissions per fight. If there is a knock on Amirkhani, it’s that the longer the fights go on the more he tends to fade and leans on his wrestling to stall and rest. If he does this against Pearce, I can see him either getting finished late in the fight or giving Pearce his first decision win.

Both fighters can be knocked down, but the more durable fighter is Pearce, who seems to find his way out of every bad spot he’s been put in so far. Both fighters average 9 minutes of fight time, which puts us in the sweet spot for my best bet on this fight, over 1.5 rounds, which is only 7 minutes of fight time.

Bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-185), 2u

Wood vs. Rosa Odds

Nathaniel Wood -575, Charles Rosa +420

Wood is 17-5-0 overall as a pro with an average fight time of 11:35 over his last 20; he is 5-foot-6 with a 69-inch reach and lands 6.28 strikes per minute while being accurate 46% of the time. Wood attempts 1.29 takedowns per fight and has an impressive 75% takedown defense; a stat that will be tested this week against Rosa.

Rosa is 14-7-0 overall as a pro with an average fight time of 13:42; he is the bigger fighter height wise, but the reach is identical for this bout. He also lands 3.05 strikes per minute, which is half of what his opponent will be throwing his way Saturday. Rosa tends to lean on his grappling and attempts 1.63 takedowns per fight, landing them 37% of the time and defending them 38% of the time. A victory for Wood won’t come by submission, because Rosa is too durable, and I don’t think he can be subbed — he hasn’t been since his amateur days in 2012. Rosa’s paths to victory are by submission or decision, but because I don’t think he’ll be able to sub Wood, that only leaves room for an ugly split decision after an amazing three rounds.

Rosa has 8 wins by submission in his career, which indicates the path to victory he often takes. His gameplan is simple, get the fight to the ground and transition to a submission or simply dominate all 15 minutes. Rosa also has a great gas tank which gives reason to why he’s so durable and hard to finish. Anyone can be knocked out in the UFC and both fighters have been knocked out, but neither have been subbed and this fight may very well end up in the hands of the judges considering their styles. I’ll be taking a bet on Wood by points -165 and also a light stab on Wood by KO +350.

Bet: Wood by points (-165), 1u

Diakiese vs. Hadzovic Odds

Marc Diakiese -360, Damir Hadzovic +270

Hadzovic is 14-6-0 as a pro, 4-4-0 in the UFC. A dynamic striker, Hadzovic is 5-foot-9 with a 70-inch reach and averages 3.91 strikes per minute, accurately landing 48% of the time. He doesn’t attempt many takedowns but is capable, as he averages 0.92 takedowns per fight and attempts 0.2 submissions. It’s safe to say that Hadzovic would rather knock his opponents out, as he carries fire power in his strikes and can put anyone to sleep at any moment. For an example, against Marcin Held, Held was dominating until he was caught with a flying knee in the beginning of the third round. That fight displayed that even after being taken down multiple times and having to defend against many sub attempts, Hadzovic still carried power late into the fight, which indicates a great gas tank.

Diakiese is 15-5-0 as a pro and 6-5-0 in the UFC. He comes into this bout averaging 2.84 strikes per minute, accurately landing 39% of his strikes. Unlike Hadzovic, who barely attempts takedowns, Diakiese averages 3.16 takedowns per fight at a near 50% rate of accuracy. The bone crusher looks to dominate on the ground and looks to finish his opponents with mean ground and pound. He does have a submission win on his record, but Diakiese looks for the takedown to dominate and beat up his opponents and less to actually sub them. Diakiese is 5-foot-10 with a 73-inch reach and has a clear path to victory if he grapples, but his confidence in his power can make this a scrap, and Hadzovic would like nothing more than to stand and bang keeping his back off the mat. In his last fight, Diakiese dominated a really good striker in Borschev by taking him down multiple times and taking away his tools. I expect the same performance from Diakiese who will want to win and hear the roar of his hometown crowd. 

Bet: FGTD (-110), 1u; Parlay piece: Diakiese moneyline (-375)

Jones vs. Klein Odds

Mason Jones -360, Ludovit Klein +270

Jones is 5-foot-10 with a 74-inch reach and averages 6.70 strikes per minute while absorbing 5.59 strikes per minute. He attempts 4.42 takedowns per fight and defends 78% of takedowns attempted against him. Jones is very durable — for example, against Mike Davis, he ate everything Davis had to offer and continued to walk through the shots and apply pressure. He did end up losing the fight against Davis but showed the UFC fans that he is the real deal and, in the UFC, can be great.

Klein steps into this fight on short notice and looks to spoil the homecoming for Jones. He is 5-foot-7 with a 72-inch reach and lands 3.58 strikes per minute at a 55% accuracy rate. Klein averages 1.37 takedowns per fight and defends 80% of takedowns coming his way. Klein possess power, athleticism and a very nasty head kick and considering that he steps in on short notice, his opponent has limited time to get to know his style, which can prove to be dangerous if Mason is careless. This fight will more than likely stay standing considering the takedown defense of both fighters, so I will be betting Mason jones to win late or by decision. 

Bet: Jones in Round 3 or decision (+120), 1u

Craig vs. Oezdemir Odds

Paul Craig +130, Volkan Oezdemir -162

Oezdemir is 17-6-0 as a pro and is 5-5-0 in the UFC. At one point in the UFC, he was on his own hype train, and he comes into this fight looking to get back in the win column. Volkan has a 75-inch reach and averages 4.75 strikes per minute while attempting 0.31 takedowns per fight. Volkan also defends 80% of takedowns, which will come in handy this weekend against the jiujitsu specialist Paul Craig.

Craig is 16-4-1 overall as a pro and 8-4-0 in the UFC. You can argue though that some of his recent bouts were lost by his opponent’s mistakes and not because Craig actually did anything effective. For example, against Jamal Hill, Craig was dropped in the first minute of the first round, and instead of letting Craig stand up, Hill decided to escape a sub attempt and proceeded to jump right back into the sub attempt and get his arm broken. Against Nikita Krylov. Craig was getting beat up pillar to post until he shot up a Hail Mary triangle choke that hit the mark.

In this bout, I don’t expect Volkan to make the same mistakes and keep this fight standing applying pressure on Craig and either find a finish or win on the score cards unanimously. 

Bet: Oezdemier by KO/TKO (+129), 1u

McCann vs. Goldy Odds

Molly McCann -500, Hannah Goldy +350

McCann is 12-4-0 overall as a pro and 6-3-0 in the UFC. A breakout star in the UFC because of her last fight, McCann seeks to keep the spark alive at UFC London, when she takes on Hannah Goldy. McCann averages 5.82 strikes per minute and defends 64% of the strikes thrown her way. This defense will come in handy against Goldy, who averages 6.04 strikes per minute. In terms of strikes absorbed, both fighters average 4.90 strikes absorbed per minute. Both fighters also average over 10 minutes of cage time, which indicates that if there is a finish it will come late in the fight or by surprise like the meatball elbow against Luanna Carolina.

Neither fighter is particularly sharp in the stand up or hold a significant advantage on the ground, so I envision this fight being and ugly scrap that goes to the judges. As for a bet, I would love to place molly in a parlay or even have confidence in saying she will roll but after witnessing her fight against Carolina, McCann is very hittable and if she doesn’t find the lucky elbow, she probably wouldn’t even be in the UFC considering how bad she looked until the knockout. It’s a hard pass for me but if I did have to lean somewhere it would be McCann in the third round or decision. 

Lean: McCann in Round 3 or decision (-200)

Krylov vs. Gustafsson Odds

Nikita Krylov -200, Alexander Gustafsson +170

This fight features a UFC vet coming out of retirement in Alexander Gustafsson, who is remembered for his war with Jon Jones, where many believe he was robbed. Nikita Krylov is coming off a disappointing lost in his last bout against Paul Craig. After dropping Craig, Krylov threw everything and the kitchen sink and gassed himself out and fell into a triangle choke.

Krylov is in London looking to spoil the return of Gustafsson and at the moment is a moderate favorite at -200. At these odds I wouldn’t touch it nor put him in a parlay simply because of his gas tank and the fact that Krylov averages 7:00 of fight time, which is concerning if the fight goes into the later rounds. Gustafsson on the other hand must’ve found some motivation from his teammates in the training room (Khamzat Chimaev), because after being away for more than two years, he is back for some action in a very winnable bout. If you look at the Gustafsson’s resume, you’ll realize he was at the top of the food chain for many years and his string of losses came either in title fights or against top contenders.

This week, I expect him to be looking for a W and not taking many chances; he also defends 80% of takedowns, which will keep this fight standing and Krylov in danger. I assume that after being away for so long he doesn’t want to step into the ring and taste defeat again so the safe route of staying mobile and striking from the outside defending takedowns to tire Krylov will lead to a finish late or a win on the cards. Many may not agree but this line is like this because of Gustafsson inactivity and not his talent. 

Bet: Gustafsson in Round 3 or decision (+300), 0.5u

Pimblett vs. Leavitt Odds

Paddy Pimblett -275, Jordan Leavitt +210

This fight is a treat and possibly the people’s main event, as Paddy the Baddy is fighting in London in front of thousands of fans looking for him to put on a show. Pimblett has a 73-inch reach and averages 6.06 strikes per minute, connecting 57% of the time. On the ground, Pimblett averages 1.81 takedowns per fight — it would be more but usually his opponents wear him as a backpack the second it hits the ground.

Jordan Leavitt (aka the Monkey King) has made quite the name for himself in the UFC with a style of fight that focuses on grappling and controlling his opponents on the ground. Very unassuming, but dangerous. Leavitt brings a strong jiujitsu pedigree into this fight. A style that may lead to the fighters canceling each other out on the ground and may not bode well for Leavitt, as Pimblett has the advantage in the striking department. Leavitt just isn’t good on his feet and if he can’t take Pimblett down and control him, I don’t see him winning this bout.

If this fight hits the ground, it may be the best grappling matchup we’ve seen in a long time and surely a treat for fans who love jiujitsu. Yet considering the path to victory for these fighters, Pimblett has more tools in his tool belt and should either win my KO/TKO or by unanimous decision. 

Bet: Pimblett by KO or submission (-140), 1u

Hermansson vs. Curtis Odds

Jack Hermansson +100, Chris Curtis -115

This fight should remind us of Curtis’ previous fight against Rodolfo Viera. In that fight, Curtis was matched up against a world-class grappler and shut down the takedown and showed his 100% takedown defense rate. After shutting down the takedown several (12) times, Curtis was able to use his boxing to apply pressure on Viera and fight to a grueling underdog win.

Curtis was -120 against Viera and is almost the same here against Hermansson — keep in mind that Curtis fought literally weeks ago and stepping in for an injured Darren Till against a grappler again gives Curtis and edge after beating a grappler that is arguably better than Hermansson. If Curtis can get past a shark like Viera, I don’t see how Hermansson can do any better, can he take Curtis down? Yes. Will he have an easy time doing it? No. Curtis is 29-8-0 overall as a pro and 3-0 in the UFC. This weekend he is looking to extend his winning streak and display his 7.23 strikes per minute with 65% accuracy.

Hermansson is 6-foot-1 with a 77-inch reach averaging (4.96) strikes per minute, accurately landing 44% of the time. He also defends the takedown 75% of the time and attempts 1.73 takedowns per fight. The slight difference between Hermansson and Viera is that Hermanson is slightly better throwing strikes when standing and is also taller, which gives him range to throw strikes from the outside and set up his takedowns cleaner than Viera.

To me the bet is simple: Curtis took this fight on such short notice because after taking care of a world-class grappler like Viera I don’t see how he can lose to a similar style fighter just weeks later. He still has a camp in his back pocket and if he traveled correctly and feels good for this fight, I can see him stopping Hermansson and continuing his winning streak in the UFC.

Bet: Curtis moneyline (-115), 1u

Blaydes vs. Aspinall Odds

Curtis Blaydes +115, Tom Aspinall -141

Curtis Blaydes is 6-foot-4 with an 80-inch reach and a wrestling background that makes him the toughest test to date for the England native Aspinall. I believe Aspinall was actually quoted in an interview saying Blaydes would be a very bad matchup for him and he was excited to put himself in deep waters against him.

Overall, Blaydes is 16-3-0 as a pro and 11-3-0 in the UFC. His only losses came in either a championship bout or to Francis Nganou (twice). Outside of those fights, Blaydes has been perfect and evolving every time he steps into the cage. It seems that when Blaydes fights power punches, he can be chinny, but here against Aspinall I don’t think the same power is provided from anything Aspinall can throw at him. Blaydes averages 6.05 takedowns per fight, accurately landing 53% of those takedowns, and once on the ground he possesses a some of the UFC’s best ground-and-pound. producing 10 knockouts so far in his career.

Aspinall is 6-foot-5 with a 78-inch reach, averaging 7.33 strikes per minute, landing 65% of his strikes and defending 100% of takedown attempts. On paper he seems to be the perfect match up for Blaydes — he is bigger by one inch, and the reach advantage doesn’t mean much considering Blaydes will be looking to take this fight to the mat and allow Aspinall to get his striking going. Keep in mind that Aspinall also is a jiujitsu black belt and capable of putting Blaydes in bad spots on the ground.

The test will be after Blaydes’ first takedown attempt. If Curtis can take Aspinall down at will then it could be a long night in London for Aspinall and he will have to work his jiujitsu on the ground to stay away from any ground-and-pound and to simply keep this fight standing. If Aspinall is able to defend the takedown, we may see Blaydes getting finished on the feet, as he doesn’t compare well in that department.

Every time Aspinall steps into the cage, new questions arise and new tests are put to see if he is the real deal. If he can get past Blaydes, I don’t see many more questions arising and he may very well be looking at a title shot in the near future. The pick is Aspinall to defend the takedown, use his jiujitsu to stay safe on the ground if it goes there and possibly getting the KO or decision win.

Bet: Aspinall by KO or decision (-105), 1u