NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
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Mateusz Gamrot vs. Arman Tsarukyan
Gamrot Breakdown
This is one of the fights that I am extremely intrigued about on many levels. I will start by saying people are looking off Gamrot a little too soon in this one due to what happened four fights ago where he dropped his hands and proved he is a human. It blows me away how the pendulum can swing on a man for losing one fight.
With a record of 20-1, He has 7 KOs and 5 submissions. In his 1 loss, he dumped a split decision to Guram Kutateladze, who is not an easy out on any level. I have noticed pros and cons in my approach to rip Gamrot down to bare bones, and it seems that dialing in his patterns is easier than I expected them to be. Gamrot does a very good job with his activity on feints, which will keep his opposition defending two levels at all times. However, when he presents the shot, he tends to fly a little lower than the second level, exposing a clear route to be caught with something big on his entries.
With that said, he does tend to fly in off the center line, which does take away the chances of any clear and present danger. However, as much as I like a fighter that keeps heavy activity in different looks, when you present it based on the same patterned blueprint, an intelligent fighter with a solid wrestling base will start to make reads on that and the percentage of success will begin to dwindle slightly.
Another thing I did notice with Gamrot is once he is on the single, he has a multitude of ways he approaches the product. He will use a very good series of trips and momentum in which he will use your own weight distribution against you, which is so technical to watch. However, when you look at the ratios of his takedowns per 15 minutes, people look at them as very impressive, and I would have to agree.
That said, there is also a flip side to that coin. When a fighter accumulates that many takedowns per affair, it also means that he is having issues locking the opposition’s hips to the ground, allowing them to find their way back to their feet. Although Gamrot has extremely diverse transitions in scrambles, he doesn’t seem to have the same smothering top control. Against someone like Tsarukyan, who has extremely high-pedigree wrestling, he will need to run through all channels from the initial entry to in order to gain position first over submission.
Tsarukyan Breakdown
Tsarukyan lost his very first fight under the UFC banner against who many people feel is the most dangerous man in MMA right now, Islam Makhachev. That fight was a tall task to ask by such a young fighter, but the account that he showed of himself in that spot was nothing to turn a blind eye to.
Sure, he lost, but he was not lost in the pressure and actually took the fight to him, letting him know that he was not here to just be another victim, and if you win, you are going to have to work for it. He ended up losing a 30-27 decision on most cards, but it was a spot where we saw some spots where Makhachev actually looked human. That says a lot about a debuting fighter. Since then, Tsarukyan has gone on to win five straight in very impressive fashion, two by KO.
Fight Analysis
This is a really tough fight to call, because on one side, the line seems extremely disrespectful to Gamrot, but on the other side, I can see the reasoning or where their heads are at in this one. I want to pick Gamrot here, but I just can’t. Even though all the value is on his side of the line, I feel like Tsarukyan is going to be able to take advantage of Gamrot’s inability to really lock his hips down. In turn, I think Tsarukyan will have opportunities to turn fortune on Gamrot and implore some of his own chain wrestling in the mix.
On the feet, I see Gamrot a step behind there as well. I do like the in, out and lateral movement he presents, but that is much more for him to find a good bead on your hips more than it is to set up his targets. In that case, I think Tsarukyan will read that fairly early and let his hands go a bit more comfortably knowing he has the wrestling to stop the shot if and when it comes, but also make Gamrot lose translation on the feet causing him to take desperate telegraphed shots that will become increasingly easier for Tsarukyan to lay a bead on and capitalize on.
I think this is going to be a highly competitive fight and to be honest, I feel like people are writing Gamrot off a little too quickly here with the way that spread is sitting. With that said, I am leaning Tsarukyan here by a thin and quite uncomfortably small gap. I wouldn’t say that he is better in any one particular area, but the way he ties it all together seems a little more fluid to me. He adjusts to what is being thrown at him a little better. He understands how to bend with the fight and not go against the grain to the point of breaking. It is going to be a highly contested match, but I have Tsarukyan edging it out.
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The Pick
Tsarukyan by way of decision
Vegas
Pass
