UFC London Betting Breakdown

Welcome to my betting breakdown for UFC London: Aspinall vs. Volkov. After two years without a card outside the United States or UAE, the UFC returns to London this weekend for the first time since March of 2019.

We have a stacked 12-fight card on tap for Saturday night. In the main event, heavyweight prospect Tom Aspinall will take part in his first UFC main event against his toughest opposition to date, perennial title contender Alexander Volkov. In the co-main event, fan-favorite Dan Hooker will move down to featherweight to take on the streaking Arnold Allen, who has won eight straight UFC matchups. Elsewhere on the card, we have several highly touted European prospects including Paddy Pimblett, Ilia Topuria, Jack Shore, and Mumammad Mokaev. There are a lot of matchups this weekend with massive favorites and steep betting odds, but I’ve found six spots that carry value.

I’ll be writing this column weekly, with extended breakdowns for up to three of my best bets. I will be in the FTNBets Discord for about two hours before the early preliminaries this weekend to answer any questions that readers might have. We’d love to continue building the community through Discord. 

If you’re interested in DFS and betting takes for every fight on this card, you can check out The Undisputed MMA Show with Jon Kelly and me.

Muhammad Mokaev vs. Cody Durden Odds

Mokaev -380, Durden +290, DraftKings Sportsbook

Mokaev makes his UFC debut this weekend at just 21 years old with a 6-0 professional MMA record and a 23-0 record on the amateur scene. Stylistically, the English prospect is primarily a grappler who looks to wrestle in nearly all his fights. Mokaev has an impressive repertoire of single-leg takedowns that he utilizes heavily to get fights to the mat. On the feet, Mokaev has a diverse kicking game but doesn’t seem to carry a ton of power in his hands. Mokaev appears to be the real deal, but he is relatively untested and just 21 years old. 

Durden has gotten off to an elusive 1-1-1 start to his UFC career, with a draw against Chris Gutierrez in his promotional debut and then a loss followed by a win against Jimmy Flick and Qileng Aori. Durden has an extensive wrestling background in the state of Georgia and has used his wrestling in most of his professional fights. While Durden has decent takedowns, I don’t love his offensive grappling, standup, or cardio. Durden to me is a one-dimensional fighter who may not be long for the UFC’s flyweight division. 

While I’m normally hesitant to back UFC debutants at big chalk prices, this is too good a matchup for Mokaev to ignore. I expect Mokaev to have advantages in wrestling, grappling, striking and cardio. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Durden force competitive wrestling exchanges early in the fight, but he historically has hit a brick wall cardiovascularly and Mokaev is going to shoot takedowns repeatedly which will tire out the American. I do have some concerns about Mokaev moving backward and fighting off the back-foot while striking, but this doesn’t appear to be a matchup that will cause him much trouble in that area. 

Bet: Muhammad Mokaev -290 1.5x until -300, 1x until -340 (Placed March 8 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

Ilia Topuria vs. Jai Herbert Odds

Topuria -575, Herbert +410 , DraftKings Sportsbook

Topuria comes into this matchup with an undefeated record of 11-0, including three consecutive wins to begin his UFC career. The 25-year-old Spanish fighter is coming off a knockout of Ryan Hall in July and has quickly gained steam as a top prospect at featherweight/lightweight. Stylistically, Topuria can really do it all for as long as he’s fresh. We’ve seen his striking on display with beautiful bodywork against Damon Jackson and he’s shown to be a high-level grappler in almost all his other fights. My one concern with Topuria is his cardio, which has been relatively untested. Through 11 career fights, “El Matador” has only seen two second rounds and he looked to be slowing down in Round 3 against Youssef Zalal in his UFC debut, losing Round 3 in unanimous fashion. 

Herbert got off to a tough start in the UFC, with consecutive losses via finish against Fransisco Trinaldo and Renato Moicano. However, the former Cage Warriors champion bounced back in a big way last time out with a knockout win over Khama Worthy. Physically, Herbert carries a large frame at 155 pounds, standing at 6-foot-1 with a 77-inch reach. Herbert does a decent job using his length and fighting behind his jab, along with carrying power on the feet. However, Herbert isn’t a sound defensive striker and gets hit a lot, along with very poor grappling. Herbert has been taken down seven times in his three UFC fights and was dominated by Renato Moicano every time the fight hit the floor. 

While I do have some concerns about Topuria and his ability to maintain his first-round capabilities for 15 or 25 minutes, this is a matchup where he is well-deserving of his status as a massive favorite. I favor Topuria on the feet slightly but expect him to shoot takedowns early in this fight and see a lot of success whilst on top of Herbert. While the price is way too prohibitive to play on the Moneyline, I do think props on Topuria were mispriced this week. We know he is a fighter who has most of his success early in fights and Herbert has been finished in all three of his career losses. I’m expecting one takedown from Topuria and this fight to be over soon thereafter. 

Bet: Ilia Topuria Wins in Round 1 +166 1x until +150 1x (Placed Wednesday) 

Arnold Allen vs. Dan Hooker Odds

Allen -115, Hooker -105, DraftKings Sportsbook

Allen enters the toughest test of his career this weekend with a perfect 8-0 record to begin his UFC career. Allen has noteworthy wins over Makwan Amirkhani, Mads Burnell and Sodiq Yussuff throughout his career. Stylistically, Allen doesn’t overwhelm opponents with any one particular elite skill but employs a well-rounded game that features very few holes to exploit. Allen has sharp boxing and has landed three knockdowns in his UFC career despite not having any knockouts, and he also has the ability to wrestle offensively, landing nearly a takedown and a half over fifteen minutes. My biggest concern with Allen is that many of his fights play out closely due to his low-volume approach when striking. The Englishman lands under three strikes per minute, which allows rounds to remain close and make it tough for him to pull away. 

Hooker will be returning to featherweight this weekend after a successful run at lightweight over the last few years. He’s 1-3 over his last four fights but has fought an elite strength of schedule, with his losses coming against Islam Makhachev, Michael Chandler and Dustin Poirier. Hooker, like Allen, is a well-rounded fighter without too many flaws in his game. When striking, Hooker has lethal knees in the clinch and throws a ton of output which always bodes well for the judges. He also has shown the ability to wrestle a little bit in his fights, most recently against Nasrat Haqparast when he landed three takedowns. My biggest concern with Hooker has been his defense (or lack thereof) on the feet, as he absorbs a lot of strikes and doesn’t have the greatest durability in the world, especially cutting down to 145. 

This is certainly a close matchup and I’m not surprised that it’s close to a pick ‘em as fight night approaches. However, I am a bit more bullish on Hooker in his quest to return to 145 than the market appears to be. I give credit to Allen for having a well-rounded game that has been enough to win fights against everybody he’s faced to this point in his career, but this is a massive step up against Hooker. Hooker has faced a much stronger schedule than Allen, throws more volume, and is the more dynamic fighter in a matchup that I expect to be relatively close. I took some Hooker +134 for a unit a few weeks back knowing that the price wouldn’t stick around, but I also added a half unit at +102 this morning after seeing Hooker make weight and look good doing so. I favor the Kiwi here and he’s worth a bet at anything better than even money.

Bet: Dan Hooker +123 1.5x until +120, 1x until +100 (Placed 1x at +134 Feb. 28, 0.5x at +102 Friday, both at FanDuel Sportsbook)