UFC 271 Betting Breakdown

Welcome to my betting breakdown for UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2.

After a few fun cards to begin 2022, the UFC octagon is heating up with a stretch of eight consecutive events. This week, the biggest promotion in MMA will return to Houston for a 14-fight event at the Toyota Center. In the main event, undisputed middleweight champion Israel Adesanya will look to defeat former champion Robert Whittaker for the second time. These two first met in a title unifying bout back in 2019, when Adesanya knocked out Whittaker en route to upgrading his interim title into an undisputed belt. In the co-main event, fan favorites are slated to throw down at heavyweight as Derrick Lewis will fight in his hometown against Tai Tuivasa. Currently, I have three bets finalized for this weekend. However, I will surely be adding at least one more play prior to the card. You can find all my plays for free in the FTN Bet Tracker.

I’ll be writing this column weekly, with extended breakdowns for up to three of my best bets. I will be in the FTNBets Discord for about two hours before the early preliminaries this weekend to answer any questions that readers might have. We’d love to continue building the community through Discord.

If you’re interested in DFS and betting takes for every fight on this card, you can check out The Undisputed MMA Show with Jon Kelly and me.

Ronnie Lawrence vs. Leomana Martinez Odds

Lawrence -310, Martinez +245, DraftKings Sportsbook

Lawrence made good on his UFC debut nearly a year ago against Vince Cachero in a fight that he won in dominant fashion after being a standout on Season 4 of the Contender Series. Lawrence is a wrestler with an extremely high pace and motor. He has landed 20 takedowns between his two fights inside the octagon. While Lawrence doesn’t have great top control after he lands takedowns, his offensive jiu-jitsu is sneaky good and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him have success with submissions in the UFC Until then though, Lawrence is happy to rinse and repeat takedowns over and over again. In terms of the standup, Lawrence knows he isn’t some big power puncher but does a decent job setting up his takedown attempts with kicks and some fun spinning attacks.

Martinez lost on Contender Series back in 2020 but clawed his way into the UFC and scratched out a win over Guido Cannetti in his debut last August. Martinez was a significant betting favorite going into that matchup and underperformed early on in the fight but was able to win Rounds 2 and 3 on the majority of scorecards that mattered, giving him a split-decision victory. Martinez is a striker who does have legitimate knockout power at 135 pounds which is not something that we see too often. However, I have not been too impressed with his game outside of power punching.

I don’t like to touch on “narratives” or subjective stories too much in my analysis, but I feel it’s necessary to remember that Martinez was going through an extremely tough portion of his life prior to his UFC debut. His head coach had recently passed away and Martinez was unable to make weight prior to his slow start in the cage. I expect to see a different version of him Saturday. However, this is just a nightmare matchup for “Manaboi.” Lawrence is not going to spend much time at distance and is going to crash into Martinez early and often which should deter the chances of an early Martinez knockout. Lawrence is a very high IQ fighter and knows not only his strengths but also his opponent’s weaknesses. In this matchup, Lawrence’s strengths perfectly match up with Martinez’s weaknesses. This should be a dominant win for Lawrence. I am very high on him as a prospect and happy to lay this sort of price on an elite prospect.

Bet

Ronnie Lawrence -275 1x until -300

Kyler Philips vs. Marcelo Rojo Odds

Philips -450,Rojo +340, DraftKings Sportsbook

Philips began his UFC career going 3-0 prior to losing to Raulian Paiva last July. All results must be contextualized though, and it’s important to note that Philips dominated Paiva early on in the fight and lost a controversial decision after gassing out basically as a product of his own success. Philips is talented pretty much everywhere a fight goes. His striking is flashy but effective and his grappling has looked solid inside the UFC as well, landing 11 takedowns over his first four fights.

Rojo is an all-action fighter who came into the UFC after a long career in different promotions and vowed to bring loads of entertainment. His first fight in the promotion last March was certainly entertaining, but mostly because he was on the wrong end of a pretty bad beating from Charles Jourdain. That fight was at featherweight, and Rojo will compete at bantamweight this weekend. Rojo is certainly fun and carries the ability to finish anybody on any given night, but he is pretty lacking in terms of real minute-winning ability and will likely be an underdog to most above-average fighters, especially at 135 pounds.

While I can’t endorse backing Philips at north of a 4-1 price tag, I do think there is value to be had on this fight. Philips has grappled in all of his UFC fights despite having just one career submission, and Rojo has historically really struggled against good grapplers. Four of Rojo’s seven career losses have come by submission, and i expect Philips to have a good shot to lock up a sub anytime this fight hits the ground.

Bet

Kyler Philips by Submission +550 0.5x until +420

Bobby Green vs. Nasrat Haqparast Odds

Green -145, Haqparast +125, DraftKings Sportsbook

Green comes into this weekend following a first-round highlight-reel knockout of Al Iaquinta at Madison Square Garden in November. Prior to that win, Green had dropped two consecutive fights after stringing together a three-fight win streak at the beginning of 2020. Stylistically, Green is a well-rounded martial artist but primarily prefers to box with his opponents. Green is known for his shoulder-roll defense with his hands down as he utilizes great head movement to avoid strikes from his opponents. Green also has good offensive wrestling and has averaged nearly a takedown and a half throughout his lengthy UFC career. The big red flag with Green is that outside of his recent win over Iaquinta, “The King” always seems to find himself in very competitive fights that lead to close decisions. Green rarely blows opponents out of the water and that makes it tough to trust him due to poor judging always being a large part of the equation.

Haqparast was once considered a top prospect at lightweight, and despite being just 26 and 5-3 inside the UFC it feels like some of the shine has worn off his hype train. Haqparast most recently lost a decisive decision against the toughest test of his career in the form of Dan Hooker last September. Haqparast is a good striker with a sneaky left-hook that he throws often. However, he doesn’t have a ton of other tools in his toolbox, as he rarely kicks opponents and has landed just one takedown in the UFC while having been put on his back seven times. Haqparast can beat low-level opponents with just his boxing as evidenced by his performances against Alexander Munoz and Rafa Garcia, but I worry that his game isn’t diverse enough to challenge above-average fighters.

This is a fight that should project to stay at boxing range for nearly its entirety. Green is more than happy to engage in a pure boxing match and Haqparast doesn’t have many skills to take the fight elsewhere. I lean toward the Green side pretty heavily as I trust his striking metrics more than Haqparast and he’s fought a much better UFC schedule. However, Green always makes fights close and sweatier than they need to be, which isn’t ideal at a -140 price tag. Instead, I’ve opted to play the “Goes The Distance” line in this matchup. Haqparast has seen the scorecards in 6 of his 8 UFC fights with his lone loss inside the distance coming against a massive hitter in Drew Dober just 60 seconds into their bout. Green is also a decision machine, having gone the full 15 minutes in nine consecutive matchups prior to his knockout over a washed Iaquinta. I may end up playing some Bobby moneyline, but the best value here is on the fight lasting until the final horn.