UFC 270 Betting Breakdown

Welcome to my betting breakdown for UFC 270: Ngannou vs Gane.

After a fun, lowkey Fight Night event began the UFC year last weekend, the biggest promotion in MMA returns this Saturday for its first PPV offering of 2022. We currently have an 11-fight card scheduled to go down at the Honda Center in Anaheim Saturday. The card features two title bouts at the top of the bill. In the co-main event, Brandon Moreno and Deiveison Figueiredo are slated to complete their trilogy for the flyweight championship. In the main event, we have a great heavyweight title unification bout between the undisputed champion, Francis Ngannou, and the interim titleholder, Ciryl Gane. Currently, I only have two bets finalized for this weekend after a few plays were spoiled due to late scratches. However, I will surely be adding at least one more play prior to the card. You can find all my plays for free in the FTN Bet Tracker.

I’ll be writing this column weekly, with extended breakdowns for up to three of my best bets. I will be in the FTNBets Discord for about two hours before the early preliminaries this weekend to answer any questions that readers might have. We’d love to continue building the community through Discord.

If you’re interested in DFS and betting takes for every fight on this card, you can check out The Undisputed MMA Show with Jon Kelly and me.

Said Nurmagomedov vs. Cody Stamann Betting Odds

Odds: Nurmagomedov -195 vs. Stamann +165, DraftKings Sportsbook

Nurmagomedov is 3-1 inside the UFC since debuting in 2018 and is coming off a first-round knockout victory over Mark Striegl after losing his first UFC bout to Raoni Barcelos in 2019. When most MMA fans and bettors see the last name Nurmaagomedov our brains normally switch straight to grappling, but Said is more of a striker than grappler. Nurmagomedov does not typically look to offensively wrestle in his fights and is instead a flashy kickboxer. Nurmagomedov uses a lot of spinning attacks, predominantly kicks to put his opponent in dangerous spots from unsuspecting angles. That said, Nurmagomedov is a well-rounded martial artist and does a nice job with his takedown defense. So far, the only real blemishes in Said’s game have been his energy conservation, as he slows down a bit late in fights and also his striking output which is not especially high for a kickboxer.

Stamann enters this PPV main card slot after losing two fights in a row to Jimmie Rivera and Merab Dvalishvili. Stamann began his UFC career going 3-0 but has only two wins over his last six fights. That said, I am still fairly bullish on The Spartan’s talent. Stamann is predominantly a wrestler, and he’s averaged nearly one takedown per round through his UFC career. Most of Stamann’s wins have come predominantly from establishing dominant control positions both against the cage and on the ground, but his offensive striking isn’t awful. His defensive striking is less strong, as Stamann doesn’t utilize a ton of head movement, but he’s very durable and has good cardio.

This should be a competitive fight Saturday and one I expect to go the distance. On the feet, it’s easy to favor Nurmagomedov as he’s the more explosive and dangerous striker with a much wider arsenal of tools in his striking arsenal. That said, I do expect Stamann to be the stronger wrestler in this fight and the striking style of Nurmagomedov leaves him vulnerable to wrestling attacks. We saw this take place in Nurmagomedov’s loss to Barcelos, in which he consistently was off-balance after throwing spinning kicks which led to Barcelos being able to get to the hips and land takedown attempts. I understand Nurmagomedov being a favorite in this fight as every bout begins on the feet and he has a much better chance of a finish than Stamann does, but I think Cody is a high-IQ fighter who can get to favorable positions if able to time his takedown entries. I’ll take the nice-sized dog money on some good ole American wrasslin’.

Bet

Cody Stamann +180 1x until +165

Micahel Morales vs. Trevin Giles Betting Odds

Odds: Morales -115 vs. Giles -105, DraftKings Sportsbook

Morales is one of several Contender Series alums to make his UFC debut this weekend. and he does so as a small favorite. Morales won on Contender Series in mostly sweat-free fashion, displaying much better wrestling ability than I had seen previously on his regional tape. The biggest thing to note regarding the Ecuadorian is that he’s only 22 years old, so large improvements are to be expected from him each time out in the octagon. That said, Morales doesn’t have a ton of impressive skills at this point in time. He is long and athletic for 170 pounds with a nice calf kick and halfway decent jab, but he is very raw as a fighter currently and not somebody who I think will win a ton of UFC fights just yet.

Giles will make his ninth walk to the octagon this weekend and will be looking to get back on track after having his previous three-fight win streak snapped in his last time out against Dricus Du Plessis. Giles is a very skilled fighter when you just look at his metrics: he absorbs a lot less strikes than he lands on opponents, his takedown defense is solid, and he averages over one takedown per fight. The eye test on Giles also checks out, as he employs a very fast jab and has very crisp boxing attacks. That said, Giles is somebody who has shown a tendency to lack IQ in the cage by getting himself into bad positions and also not throwing enough volume to clearly pull away from his opponents on the scorecards. Additionally, Giles had recently been fighting at 185 pounds and is dropping to 170 this weekend. He made weight and looked great on the scales, but Giles’ best attribute has always been his speed in my opinion and when moving down in weight everybody will already be fast.

While I acknowledge both that Morales is a young and improving fighter who has some long-term upside and Giles has a tendency to make fights harder than they need to be, I like the veteran in this matchup. Morales has a strong low kick game but for the most part his striking doesn’t impress me, and Giles does a great job of working behind his jab and employing tremendous striking defense. While Giles can be frustrating at times due to his lack of offense, his defense always remains solid, and he is a difficult man to land damage on. Morales did land four takedowns in his contender series fight, which gives him an additional path to victory in this spot, but Giles has shown solid takedown defense and should be the stronger fighter after moving down from 185 pounds. Overall, this is just a really stiff test for a UFC newcomer and getting an underdog price on the more established and experienced fighter is well worth a bet.

Bet

Trevin Giles +115 1x until +100

Ciryl Gane vs. Francis Ngannou Betting Odds

Odds: Gane -145 vs. Ngannou +125, DraftKings Sportsbook

This is a fight that has seemingly been building ever since Cyril Gane made his UFC debut in 2019 and obviously carries massive stakes in the heavyweight division. Not only is this fight a title unification match with both men carrying some form of UFC gold into Saturday night, but it’s also a matchup of former training partners who now find themselves as the clear-cut top two heavyweight fighters on planet earth. This fight also carries massive stakes outside of the octagon in terms of Francis Ngannou’s UFC career, as it’s been highly publicized that this is the final fight on his UFC contract and negotiations between the champ and the UFC have seemingly hit a speed bump.

Inside the cage, Ngannou has been a special talent since the moment he debuted inside the octagon way back in 2016. He won five consecutive fights to begin his UFC career before losing his first title shot against Stipe Miocic and then also falling to Derrick Lewis. Since the Lewis loss, Ngannou has once again won five straight fights, this time beating Miocic for the heavyweight strap last year. Stylistically, Ngannou is an enigma we’ve never seen before in terms of his ability to end fights with one punch. He carries a massive frame and power punching that has allowed him to win his last five fights all via knockout in a combined 8 and a half minutes of time inside the cage. That little time spent inside the cage tells us that Ngannou is a lightning-fast starter and is extremely dangerous in the early rounds with his ability to land flush on opponents and turn their lights off with ease. However, that little time spent inside the cage also doesn’t tell us a whole bunch. Ngannou was exposed to some extent in his first fight against Miocic as somebody with poor cardio and questionable takedown defense. Since then, we’ve only seen him fight one full round and that was in his rematch with Miocic where Ngannou was certainly impressed with his takedown defense but was also not forced to fight longer than six minutes. It feels like much of the MMA public takes a hard stand on Ngannou as either some unbeatable force or as a one-dimensional power puncher, and I think his true talent lies somewhere in the middle.

(Sign up for FTN Bets today for $49.99 a month!)

Gane is undefeated since transitioning to MMA, including a flawless 7-0 UFC record where he has yet to face any sort of adversity. Stylistically, Gane appears to be one of the most talented heavyweights that we’ve ever seen in MMA. He is 6-foot-5 with great footwork and a speed advantage over most light heavyweights on the roster, let alone heavyweights. Gane has fought 22 rounds inside the UFC and is yet to lose one as he boasts a great ability to win minutes. Gane has a strike differential of nearly +3, meaning he lands almost three more strikes per minute than his opponents. While that may not sound like much, it adds up quickly and is a statistic that indicates Gane outstrikes his opponents by 75 strikes over a full five round bout. Gane has also displayed some elements of a well-rounded ground game with five takedowns through eight fights and a submission victory. If there’s a knock on Gane that we’ve seen so far it may be his lack of finishing ability. Although Gane has finished half of his victories including a knockout over Derrick Lewis for the interim title, he doesn’t seem to possess the type of one-punch knockout power that we see so often at heavyweight. Although Gane remains incredibly skilled, if he’s unable to put opponents away at such a volatile weight class it remains possible that his opponents have a chance for a one-punch knockout late in fights even if greatly out-skilled.

Although some may be surprised by a force such as Ngannou being an underdog in this title fight, Cyril Gane is clearly deserving of his status as a betting favorite. This is a relatively easy fight to breakdown as it boils down to one key question: how likely is Francis Ngannou to land a knockout sequence in the first two rounds? Although determining the X-Factor question is easy, the answer is difficult. It seems very likely that Gane will win this fight if it goes the entire 25-minute duration and he’s likely to win nearly every round leading up to that as he just throws so much more volume than Ngannou. Gane figures to be at a cardio and skill advantage in this matchup, but Ngannou has finished all ten of his UFC wins inside the first two rounds. Ngannou’s best chance in this matchup is obviously to land an early devastating blow, but Gane has proven to be very difficult to hit through his career, absorbing just 2.4 strikes per minute. If Ngannou is unable to impose his will early on in the fight, Gane will utilize more attritional strikes such as his jab and teep kick to the body as the fight goes on and he begins to take over. I currently have no bet on this fight, but I certainly favor Gane and may look to play him in the prop market or bet his moneyline if it comes back closer to the -135 range.