UFC 267 Betting Breakdown

Welcome to my betting breakdown for UFC 267: Blachowicz vs Teixeira.

This week the promotion will be in Abu Dhabi for the first time since January 23rd for UFC 257: Poirier vs McGregor. Unlike previous trips to Fight Island, the UFC will only be in the United Arab Emirates for one week before heading back to the states for UFC 268 at Madison Square Garden in New York City on November 6th. There are two title fights at the top of the bill for UFC 267. The main event is for the light heavyweight title in a matchup between the current champion, Jan Blachowicz, and challenger Glover Teixeira, who lost in his only previous shot at touching UFC gold in 2014. In the co-main event, former title-holder Petr Yan will look to recapture a portion of UFC gold as he takes on Cory Sandhagen for the interim bantamweight title. In the featured bout of the evening, Islam Makhachev will look to continue his dominance over the 155-pound division but faces a tough test in New Zealand’s Dan Hooker.

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UFC 266 Betting Odds

Alexander Volkov vs. Marcin Tybura Betting Odds

Odds: Volkov -305 vs Tybura +240, DraftKings Sportsbook

Volkov is one of the most talented heavyweights in the world and has put together a 7-3 record in the UFC, but is coming off a five-round decision loss to Ciryl Gane in a June main event. Physically, Volkov is one of the largest fighters on the planet at 6’7” with a 80” reach while weighing in just under the heavyweight limit of 265 pounds. Stylistically, he is a point-fighting striker who uses his length exceptionally well in the form of strikes such as his jab and front kicks to the body. Volkov has struggled in his last two losses, but they came against the best takedown artist in the division, Curtis Blaydes, and then against Gane, who is easily the most talented heavyweight we’ve ever seen in MMA. When Volkov is able to keep fights standing, he is an extremely difficult heavyweight to outstrike.

There was a good amount of hype surrounding Tybura when he first entered the UFC in 2016, but the Polish former M-1 fighter got off to a rocky 4-5 start including three KO losses. However, he has since put together a five-fight win streak and now finds himself in the toughest matchup of his career. Stylistically, Tybura uses a kick-heavy approach on the feet but his strengths mostly lie in grappling. He has landed a takedown in each fight over the course of his recent win streak and has put together consecutive knockout victories due to his ground-and-pound-prowess. The biggest knock against Tybura historically has been his durability, as he’s been knocked out four times in his career and, even in recent victories over Greg Hardy and Walt Harris there have been moments where he seemed compromised before landing a takedown and reversing the fortune of the matchup.

It sounds weird to say this about a -275 favorite, but this is actually a perfect spot to buy-low on Volkov. He is 2-2 in his last four fights but those losses came against extremely tough competition. At the same time, we can sell high on Tybura who has put together a nice win streak but has been far from dominant while doing so. The striking in this matchup should be non-competitive and a big advantage for Volkov. The Russian has truly elite striking metrics and Tybura is rarely able to out-land his opponents when it comes to distance strikes. Tybura’s success would be predicated on landing takedowns in this matchup but his wrestling is reliant on his opponents being poor defensive grapplers and Volkov has solid takedown defense and get-ups. While Volkov’s takedown defense is only 67%, a lot of that data is skewed by him getting taken down by Blaydes a whopping 14 times. That fight showed A) how elite of a wrestler Blaydes is and B) how great Volkov’s get-up game is to get up from all those takedowns. If we eliminate the Blaydes fight, Volkov has stuffed 30 of 35 (86%) of takedowns within the UFC. I expect “Drago” to keep this fight standing and find a knockout.

Bet:

Alexander Volkov -275 1x until -300 (Placed 10/28 on FoxBet)

Petr Yan vs. Cory Sandhagen Betting Odds

Odds: Yan -220 vs Sandhagen +180, DraftKings Sportsbook

Yan enters this fight coming off of a controversial DQ loss to Aljamain Sterling in March where the Russian was forced to relinquish his title. He is now 7-1 in the UFC but will have a shot to touch gold yet again in this interim title fight. Yan is one of the 10 best fighters currently in MMA as doesn’t have any obvious weaknesses. He has a boxing background that is extremely evident in his MMA game as his power and speed with his hands are unmatched by most other fighters. He is also a great anti-grappler, as he boasts a 90% takedown defense within the UFC while landing 16 of his own takedowns across eight fights. Yan’s primary weapon however is still his power, as he has 9 knockdowns within the UFC, including at least one in each of his last four fights. The one small flaw within Yan’s game is that he is susceptible to having his fights be won by very small margins. Yan is often either getting outstruck in terms of volume or the striking statistics are very even, which means that neither man is winning convincingly. Yan has been able to overcome that due to his power and ability to change fights and rounds with one punch, but I do think there are times where he is at risk of not scoring enough points for the judges.

Sandhagen is an elite striker at 135 pounds and is coming off a close decision loss to T.J Dillashaw in July. Despite losing the fight, Sandhagen got the call for this interim title fight due to Dillashaw being unavailable because of injuries sustained while in a Sandhagen submission attempt. Sandhagen has a dangerous Brazilian Jiu Jitsu game off his back but his best skill by far is his standup. He’s extremely long for the division (4-inch height advantage and 3-inch reach advantage over Yan) and uses his length and footwork to create a very tough puzzle to crack while striking. Defensively, Sandhagen has done a good job at defending strikes throughout his career but his takedown defense is just 65%, and while his offensive BJJ game is great, he has a bad tendency to give up dominant positions while grappling.

This should be a really competitive fight on Saturday. I expect Yan to have some wrestling success against Sandhagen but I’m not sure how much control time he will be able to rack up, which makes this a handicap heavily influenced by the striking dynamic. While Yan is likely the more crisp boxer, Sandhagen is a truly elite striker and should win the earlier rounds in this matchup. Yan has historically conceded the first round in fights while trying to get his counter-striking timing down. However, Sandhagen does great work to his opponent’s body and has the cardio to fight at a high pace for a full 25 minutes. I favor Yan due to his wrestling upside and power advantage, but if this goes the full 25 minutes I do think Sandhagen is capable of winning on volume, but he could also be dangerous off his back or with knee strikes up the middle. This is far too close a fight to not bet +200 on either side.

Bet:

Cory Sandhagen +205 1x until +185 (Placed 10/28 on FanDuel)

Jan Blachowicz vs. Glover Teixeira Betting Odds

Odds: Blachowicz -300 vs Teixeira +240 , DraftKings Sportsbook

Blachowicz, 38, has had one of the most fascinating runs we’ve seen inside the UFC. In April of 2017 he had lost four of his last five fights inside the promotion and was seemingly on the verge of getting cut, but has since put together a 9-1 run over his last ten fights and knocked out Dominick Reyes to win the vacant title last September before defending his belt against Israel Adesanya earlier this year. Teixeira, 41, has a similar story. Teixeira has been fighting in the UFC since 2012 and was undefeated in the promotion until 2014, when he lost a five-round decision to Jon Jones in a title fight. Teixeira then went 5-4 in his next nine fights following his title shot but has put together a five-fight win streak dating back to 2019 that includes four finishes. Blachowicz enters this fight as a large favorite, likely due to his dominance against the champion Adesanya back in March. Teixeira enters as the underdog, which was to be expected. Despite his recent results, Teixeira has been in serious danger of losing some of his most recent fights and is known for his comeback style, something that may be tough to do against the champion.

Stylistically, Blachowicz’s most notable attribute is his “legendary Polish power,” which is a term that was coined in large part due to the knockout power in his hands that defeated Luke Rockhold, Corey Anderson, and Dominick Reyes – all in an eight-month span. Defensively, Blachowicz is pretty responsible at avoiding damage. He has absorbed just 2.79 strikes per minute across his UFC career and has only been finished twice in 36 fights at one of the heavier weight classes.

On the flip side, most of Teixeira’s success has historically come through grappling. While Teixeira has 18 career knockouts and certainly carries power in his punches, which are mostly power hooks, his current win streak has been more about Brazilian Jiu Jitsu excellence. Teixeira submitted Karl Roberson, Ion Cutelaba, and Thiago Santos during his current win streak, and his knockout over Anthony Smith was due to positional dominance on the ground and some heavy ground and pound. The main knock against Teixeira at this point in his career is that he’s an aging fighter with poor striking defense, which has led to him frequently getting hurt. He was knocked down and nearly finished in his last victory against Santos, and the same thing happened against Karl Roberson in 2019. Yet Teixeira has elite recovery skills and is oftentimes able to land desperation takedowns to get himself out of precarious positions in the octagon.

I like the underdog here in the main event. It’s possible, perhaps even likely that Blachowicz can come out on Saturday and put Teixeira away early in their fight. Blachowicz has that “legendary Polish power” that I have referenced a few times, and Teixeira is prone to getting stung in almost all his fights. I think the standup dynamic in this fight should be a fairly sizable edge to the champion, who despite having a slightly lower punching output than Teixeira throughout their careers is more likely to land the power punches in this matchup. Blachowicz also has a strong kicking game as part of his striking arsenal, as shown in his win over Dominick Reyes where he left the American a nice big red foot imprint on his ribcage. Teixeira isn’t drawing dead on the feet. He hits extremely hard himself and we have seen Blachowicz hurt before, but Teixiera’s success in striking is more likely to be the result of one punch as opposed to dominance over the course of multiple exchanges.

However, I do think that Teixeira has a decently good chance at implementing a game plan here that would give the champion trouble. While Blachowicz’s takedown defense isn’t atrocious at 65%, we have seen fighters have some success bringing him down in the past. I suspect that Teixeira will shoot takedowns and try to make this fight as clinch-heavy and as cage-push heavy as possible, which is where he could wear on Blachowicz. A recent example of a similar stylistic fight is when Blachowicz fought Jacare Souza in November of 2019. Souza went 0-5 in takedown attempts in that fight but was able to tie Blachowicz up against the cage for eight and a half minutes, which led to a split decision. Any iteration of this fight with eight-plus minutes of control for Teixeira should make him extremely live to win. The biggest fear by far for the Teixeira side is that Blachowicz is likely to hurt him at least once, and Teixeira has been able to land takedowns when hurt against lesser competition, but Blachowicz has decent first-level takedown defense and is an instinctual finisher when he hurts opponents. I’m picking the champion, but the betting value lies solely in the underdog.