UFC Vegas 41 Betting Breakdown

Welcome to my betting breakdown for UFC Vegas 41: Vettori vs Costa. The UFC will continue its run of fight night events at the Apex Facility in Las Vegas, Nevada this weekend. The fourteen-fight card is headlined by a light-heavyweight bout between two men who normally fight at middleweight and are each coming off of a title shot loss to Israel Adesanya, Marvin Vettori and Paulo Costa. With 14 fights available to wager on, I’ve found a lot of spots that I feel comfortable attacking in the betting market.

You can find all my plays for free in the FTN Bets Tracker. I’ll be writing this column weekly with extended breakdowns for up to three of my best bets, and occasionally some leans if I don’t have three plays. I will be in the FTNBets Discord for about two hours before the early prelims this weekend to answer any questions that readers might have. We’d love to continue building the community through Discord.

If you’re interested in DFS and betting takes for every fight on this card, you can check out The Undisputed MMA Show with Jon Kelly and myself.

UFC Vegas 41

Jeff Molina vs. Daniel Lacerda betting odds

Odds: Molina -160 vs Lacerda +140, DraftKings Sportsbook

Molina debuted in the UFC with an impressive victory over Qileng Aori at UFC 261 in April. Molina had captured a UFC contract on the Contender Series in the summer of 2020 and I’ve been impressed with his performances. Although the sample size is small, Molina has landed nearly 9 strikes per minute in 30 minutes of octagon time and has amassed two knockdowns, which speaks to a combination of volume and power-punching ability. One potential area of weakness for Molina has been his takedown defense, but his get-up game is strong. He’s spent less than three minutes being controlled by his opponents despite getting taken down five times between his DWCS and UFC debut fights.

Lacerda will be making his UFC debut this weekend at 25 years old with an 11-1 record that he’s amassed on the Brazilian regional scene. There is not a ton of tape available to watch on Lacerda, so I was only able to watch 8 minutes of his career. That limited sample against lesser opponents (compared to the UFC level) makes it tough to evaluate his talent level. In terms of his fighting style, it’s easy to tell that Lacerda is a fast starter with decent takedowns, solid submissions and flashy kicks on the feet. In 12 professional fights, Lacerda has only been out of the first round once, so there are certainly some questions moving forward regarding his cardio and finishing ability against higher-level opponents.

As previously mentioned, it’s difficult to evaluate how good Lacerda is, but I tend to think that Molina is the far more fundamentally sound striker in this matchup and should be able to get up if taken down. However, instead of betting on assumptions, I’ll bet on what I know in this matchup and that’s the fact that Lacerda is going to come out extremely aggressively and hunt for a finish. While it’s possible he can land a kick early in the fight or get to a dominant position against Molina, I do expect the favorite to survive an early storm and win a brawl. The longer the fight goes, the more Molina should be favored, as Larceda has a physically taxing style and has never fought past the second round.

Bets:

Jeff Molina/Daniel Lacerda Fight Doesn’t Go to Decision +115 1.5x until +110, 1x until -105 (Placed 10/22, on FoxBet)
Jeff Molina Wins in Round 3 +1600 0.25x until +1000 (Placed 10/22 on FanDuel)

Nicolae Negumereanu vs. Ike Villanueva betting odds

Odds: Negumereanu -240 vs. Villanueva +195, DraftKings Sportsbook

Negumereanu was blown out by Saparbeg Safarov during his UFC debut in 2019, but rallied back with a split decision win over Aleksa Camur this past June. Negumereanu doesn’t strike me as a special talent by any stretch, but he does have a solid takedown game with decent top control. His striking isn’t awful in terms of his offensive output, but his defensive striking is extremely poor. I almost don’t want to mention that he has a 26% striking defense because lots of that is skewed data from ground-and-pound blows landed by Safarov, but he also absorbed 102 strikes from Camur last time out.

Villanueva is 1-3 inside the UFC, with all three of his losses coming inside the distance and his lone win coming by early second-round knockout against Vinicus Moreira in January. Physically, Villanueva is pretty much an inflated middleweight who debuted at heavyweight. Stylistically, he fights more like a heavyweight than anything else. Villanueva is purely a stand-up fighter with solid power early on in fights, but outside of that he doesn’t have many paths to victory and has historically gotten finished at a high clip in fights that leave round one.

This is an easy handicap for me, as I find most Ike Villanueva fights to be. He simply needs an early knockout in order to win. That is actually decently likely against Negumereanu, who eats punches with his face. Yet the more likely outcome is that Villanueva is unable to find a finish and instead gets finished himself. The two combatants have only reached a combined two third rounds over their last ten fights. I think we see violence in this spot.

Bet

Ike Villanueva/Nicolae Negumereanu Fight Does NOT Start Round 3 -146 2x until -150, 1.5x until -167, 1x until -185. (Placed 10/21 at FanDuel)

Marvin Vettori vs. Paulo Costa betting odds

Odds: Vettori -180 vs. Costa +155, DraftKings Sportsbook

*Excerpts taken from UFC Vegas 41 – Costa vs. Vettori Betting Odds, Picks, and Preview*

This is a fascinating matchup for a few reasons, but I think the most obvious is that we haven’t seen Vettori or Costa fight since they were granted a title opportunity against Israel Adesanya. That narrative makes for some very interesting conversation, as the most recent data point we have for both men is against a common opponent and in a fight in which they were largely outclassed. Vettori enters as a small favorite, and that makes sense considering he has won four fights since Costa was last victorious in the cage. Since debuting in 2016, Vettori has had a very successful UFC run. He’s gone 7-3-1 inside the octagon, including an impressive five-fight win streak prior to his unanimous decision loss to Adesanya.

Stylistically, Vettori doesn’t necessarily carry any skills that will blow you away, but he has a lot of strong attributes that he’s been able to combine with above-average skills. Essentially, Vettori is an above-average striker and one of the best grapplers in a division largely devoid of grappling talent. He is extremely durable (has never been finished) and is able to adapt his fighting style based on his opponent’s skill set.

On the flip side, Costa was undefeated leading up to his showdown with Adesanya and had shown very few weaknesses to that point in his career, yet his skill set was more narrow. Costa is primarily a striker who hits with a ton of power and has been able to land lots of volume in fights before, but also had some cardio concerns as well as defensive wrestling concerns. He was largely exposed as having no plan B against Adesanya when his normal gameplan of extreme aggression was successfully countered. With Costa being out for nearly 13 months at this point, it’s hard to gauge exactly what we’ll see on Saturday night from him. I have a strong feeling that his approach won’t be any different.

The UFC has not put on the most entertaining stretch of main events recently, but we have a really good one this weekend. The best part for me as a bettor is that I have a pretty strong opinion on the fight. To me, this can only be considered a “prove-it” spot for Costa. He needs to prove that he is the same dynamic striker who had four consecutive knockouts to begin his UFC career. He needs to prove that he is still able to channel the aggressive style that saw him have so much success against a guy like Yoel Romero, and he also may need to prove something that he’s never done before: win a fight if he cannot melt his opponent early due to pressure. If Costa is able to do those three things, he has a solid chance of winning.

However, Marvin Vettori is almost surely going to force Costa to face some adversity. Vettori is extremely durable and unlikely to be knocked out early like some of Costa’s most notable wins, and he also is willing to embrace the grind of a fight and turn it into a grueling, grappling-heavy affair that won’t allow Costa to move forward with reckless abandon. He might test the gas tank of the Brazilian. Of course, it’s possible that Costa gets a quick finish here, but his wins in the UFC have not aged especially well and he is coming off a long stretch of inactivity after the worst performance of his career. While Vettori is coming off a loss, he put together some of his best wins prior to the Adesanya fight and brings a style that I think Costa will struggle to adjust to. The bottom line here is that Vettori is going to force Costa to answer a lot of questions that were asked following the Adesanya performance, and I think Vettori is a large favorite to win the fight if he can avoid getting finished early.

Update: This fight is now taking place at 205 pounds as opposed to 185 pounds as it was previously scheduled for. This is due to Costa and his team saying he is unable to make 185, or even a catchweight of 195. I have received a lot of questions throughout the week about how this weight change impacts the fight and my answer is mostly that I find it impossible to quantify. Both men appeared in shape at weigh-ins on Friday morning. Perhaps Costa has some more finishing upside now that he hasn’t completely depleted, but carrying extra weight will likely tax his gas tank even more than usual, not to mention the potential injury/circumstances that led him to being unable to make weight. I still am happy with my early Vettori bet and think that if anything, the unders in this fight have picked up value throughout the week.