Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Week 5 comes to a close with a Monday Night Football showdown between the Indianapolis Colts and Baltimore Ravens.
The Colts managed to get in the win column last week with a victory over the Dolphins, while the Ravens have racked up three wins through their first four games.
The Ravens are the clear better side in this matchup, but can they cover the spread? Let’s dive in.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Baltimore Ravens Week 5 Odds
Date/Time: October 11, 8:15 p.m. ET
Arena: M&T Bank Stadium
How to watch: ESPN/ABC
Opening odds: Ravens -7 | O/U 48.0
Latest Colts-Ravens odds
Looking for the latest odds for this matchup? Here they are, with the best prices from DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Ravens -6.5
- Total: 46
For up-to-date odds, check out DraftKings Sportsbook.
Opening odds – Colts vs. Ravens
The spread has stayed pretty stagnant for most of the week. The line is still Ravens -7 across most of the industry, but DraftKings did make the decision to drop the Ravens to -6.5. That’s a big deal. Seven is one of the most important numbers in NFL betting, so that half-point move is significant.
The reason for the decision is that the sharps seem to have some interest in the Colts. They’ve received just 41% of the spread bets, but those bets have accounted for 58% of the dollars.
The total has also seen some interesting movement. It opened at 48.0 and was ultimately bet down to 45.0. However, most of the recent activity has been on the over, which has pushed this number back up to 46.0 on DraftKings. It has reached 46.5 at certain locations, so it seems like the over is the preferred bet at the current number.
Quarterback analysis — Carson Wentz vs. Lamar Jackson
Carson Wentz is in his first year with the Colts, and he’s looking to rebuild his reputation. He was once considered one of the best young quarterbacks in his career, but he did not look like the same player toward the end of his Eagles’ tenure.
He’s gotten off to a solid start this season, racking up five touchdowns with just one interception. His average of 7.1 adjusted yards per attempt doesn’t jump off the page, but it’s a sizable improvement from his mark of 5.2 last season.
Wentz faces a tough task this week vs. the Ravens, who rank 12th in Football Outsiders defensive DVOA. He’s also historically struggled as an underdog, posting a record of 5-7 against the spread when getting more than four points.
The Ravens have one of the most unique quarterbacks in football in Lamar Jackson, and the team is letting him air it out a bit more this season. Their pass rate is at 52% in one-score games through the first four weeks, and while that’s still one of the lowest marks in the league, it’s a massive increase from their mark of 45% last season.
Jackson has made the most of his extra opportunities. He’s averaging a career-best 269.3 passing yards per game this season and a league-leading 14.4 yards per completion. Of course, Jackson is still one of the top rushing threats in football, and he’s averaged nearly 70 yards per game on the ground. Any progression as a passer will make this offense extremely tough to stop.
Jackson owns a strong 24-17 ATS mark as a starting quarterback during the regular season, but he’s been mediocre as a favorite. He’s just 17-16 in that situation, including 6-9 when laying between three and seven points.
Latest Colts betting news & info
The Colts’ offensive line is in a really bad spot at the moment. Quenton Nelson is currently on the IR, while Eric Fisher, Ryan Kelly and Braden Smith were all DNPs at practice.
Three of their top defenders are also uncertain for this matchup. First-round pick Kwity Paye did not practice on Friday, while Darius Leonard and Rock Ya-Sin were limited. Taking on the Ravens is tough enough, but doing it so shorthanded is nearly impossible.
Latest Ravens betting news & info
The Ravens are in a much better spot from an injury perspective. Cornerback Chris Westry is on IR, but he’s really the only impact player who won’t be in the lineup vs. the Colts.
Additionally, the Ravens could get Rashod Bateman back this week. He still may be a week away, but the talented rookie receiver should make this passing attack even more potent when he’s eventually activated.
Colts vs. Ravens betting picks – NFL Week 5
I’m not really sure why the sharps seem to like the Colts in this matchup. They are probably better than their 1-3 record indicates, but this does not seem like the spot for them to get right. The Ravens are too good, and the Colts are dealing with too many injuries.
I’m definitely interested in grabbing the Ravens at less than a full touchdown. Their passing attack has taken a step forward this season, and they should have no problem moving the ball through the air against the Colts’ defense. They rank just 25th in pass defense DVOA this season, so that’s an exploitable matchup.
FTNBets best bets
- Ravens -6.5
For more information, betting picks and analysis, check out the FTN NFL Bet Tracker.
How to bet on this game
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