Steelers vs Bills Week 1 Betting Preview

Week 1 kicks off between a high-powered offense clashing with a high-powered defensive unit in a matchup between the Buffalo Bills and the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The Steelers defense was downright elite in 2020, leading the NFL in adjusted completion percentage allowed (68.4%) while allowing the third-least passing yards and the sixth-fewest passing touchdowns (22). How will they fare against Josh Allen, who ranked fourth in adjusted completion percentage (79.6%), fifth in touchdowns (37), and ranked top-10 in aDOT (8.29)?

If the last two seasons are any indication, they won’t fare too well. The Steelers have dropped consecutive games against the Bills, most recently losing a sloppy 26-15 contest in Week 13 last season.

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Pittsburgh Steelers @ Buffalo Bills Week 1 Odds

Date/Time: September 12, 1:00 PM ET
Arena: Highmark Stadium
How to Watch: FOX
Opening Odds: Bills -6.5 | O/U 49.0 (DraftKings Sportsbook)

Latest Steelers-Bills Odds

Looking for the latest odds for this matchup? Here are they courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Bills -6.5
Total: 49.0

Opening Odds – Steelers vs. Bills

The spread opens with the Bills favored by roughly a touchdown, which feels appropriate given the last two games between these teams. A touchdown feels like a coverable spread for one of the most potent offenses in football, especially considering the fact that they held a lead-league 11-5-0 record ATS in 2020.

Trailing closely behind the Bills in 2020 were the Steelers, who finished 10-6-0 against the spread, though their +2.2-point differential ATS trailed the Bills league-leading +5.6. With the Bills not only covering the spread in the majority of their games but blowing it out of the water, this feels like a very bettable line.

Quarterback Analysis – Ben Roethlisberger vs. Josh Allen

These are two quarterbacks heading in complete opposite reactions in terms of their careers. Roethlisberger is entering year 19 with his career nearing its end, while Allen is entering his prime. Still, Roethlisberger is surrounded by capable weapons with Chase Claypool, Diontae Johnson, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Najee Harris. He’s typically a quarterback that I avoid in the betting market, but these are receiving props to target, as the Bills were a middling secondary, allowing a 76.4% adjusted completion percentage last season.

The Steelers’ secondary is arguably the best in the NFL, as alluded to before, and they’ve limited Allen to under 240 passing yards in each of their last two games. Given the likelihood that his passing prop will be well above this line, this is an under that I have interest in anywhere around 280 yards or higher.

Latest Steelers Betting News & Info

The Steelers rushing attack will be under the microscope this season, as their poor offensive line play coupled with a buzzworthy rookie in Najee Harris has questions swirling. The Steelers were dead last in the NFL last season in rushing yards (1,351) but could start on a strong foot in 2021, as the Bills ranked bottom-12 in the NFL in rushing yards per game allowed in 2020 (123.2) by trusting their rookie RB with a three-down role.

Latest Bills Betting News & Info

The only pertinent news circling Buffalo Bills camp this offseason has been the vaccination status of the wide receivers, as Cole Beasley and Gabriel Davis have elected to forego the vaccine, leaving their status of games up in the air if they become a close-contact. As of now, all systems are go for Week 1 and Davis in particular had a strong rapport with Allen in the preseason.

With top corners for Pittsburgh hyper-focusing on Stefon Diggs, Davis could be primed for success and should come at a cheap price in the prop market.

Steelers vs. Bills Betting Picks – NFL Week 1

As alluded to in the beginning, both of these teams were some of the best against the spread in 2020. For that reason, I am foregoing betting on the spread in Week 1. I would rather take my chances against the total, as both teams have serviceable enough defenses to avoid a shootout, while the Steelers focusing on the run could slow the pace of play down. At a total of 49.0 on DraftKings Sportsbook, I will confidently be betting the under.

Here are our betting picks for Steelers vs. Bills in Week 1.

FTNBets Best Bets

Spread: no bet
Total: under 49.0, DraftKings Sportsbook

For more information, betting picks, and analysis, check out the FTN NFL Bet Tracker.

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