Divisional Round NFL Moneyline Underdogs

The NFL Wild Card Weekend never disappoints, and it persevered even through the most aggressive of snowstorms in Buffalo.

We are now onto the NFL Divisional Round with four fantastic matchups scheduled this weekend: 

• Houston at Baltimore: Saturday, 4:30 pm ET
• Green Bay at San Francisco: Saturday, 8:15 pm ET
• Tampa Bay at Detroit: Sunday, 3:00 pm ET
• Kansas City at Buffalo: Sunday, 6:30 pm ET

We missed a fantastic moneyline outright win by the Rams, losing a thrilling 24-23 game at Detroit. This week, we turn our attention to No. 1 seeds that are surprisingly vulnerable in this round. Per Dustin Swedelson of VSIN, No. 1 seeds are only 10-10 ATS in this round of the playoffs over the past 10 seasons and 8-2 to the under in the last five years. That makes for two intriguing moneyline opportunities for this weekend. 

Throughout the season, I have given you my favorite moneyline underdogs who I believe have the best chance to pull the outright upset. Let’s take a look at my favorite moneyline underdog for the NFL’s Divisional playoff round!

Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens

Texans ML (+345, Caesars Sportsbook)

Baltimore opened the season with a comfortable 25-9 victory over the Texans. It was the first start of the year for Houston rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud, who was sacked five times and lost a fumble. However, the Texans only trailed 7-6 at halftime on the road of that Week 1 matchup. 

The Texans are a completely different team and are coming off a 45-14 home thrashing of Cleveland, a team that entered with a comparable defense to Baltimore. The Texans kept Stroud free from pressure all day, allowing zero sacks with no turnovers to a Browns team that totaled three sacks with two interceptions just three weeks earlier. 

Houston’s offensive line is playing its best football of the season after starting the year in shambles. They have allowed three total sacks over their past three games. While the Ravens have averaged four sacks per game at home this season, the Texans will be up to the task. 

The Texans’ defensive strength matches up well with Baltimore’s offensive preference to run the ball. Houston ranks second-best in run defense DVOA, only trailing Detroit this season.  The Ravens rank first overall with a 50.3% run rate this season. If Houston can limit their rushing production and put more pressure on Lamar Jackson to attack the Texans through the air, their chance to earn a huge road win drastically increases. 

Baltimore tight end Mark Andrews returned to practice this week but is still considered questionable to play. Without Andrews, the Ravens offensive weapons are still limited. I’m grabbing the 9.5 points with the Texans and love the moneyline play with a fantastic +345 number. 

Pick

Texans ML (+345)