Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Welcome to Hoops with Noops! The NBA regular season rolls on, with 10 games Friday and plenty of intrigue, injury issues and inane matchups. I’m excited to see how the Celtics respond to almost losing to the Pistons, and Thunder/Nuggets could be a preview of the Western Conference Finals. The Lakers aren’t even playing, but we still get to speculate wildly about which star players will be on the court in the Crypto.com Arena.
Don’t forget about rotten cherry on top, as we get Spurs/Trail Blazers for the second night in a row! Let’s dive into each game and see if we can sort out who’s playing, figure out who might be winning, and hopefully find some wagers worth betting. Of course, since it’s Friday, you can also watch a video version of Hoops with Noops on the FTNBets YouTube channel. You can leave a comment there if you have any specific questions or suggestions on what more you’d like to see. Onto the basketball!
NBA Best Bets for Friday
Brooklyn Nets at Washington Wizards
Current Line – Nets -6, 242.5
My Projection – Nets 125, Wizards 120
Key Injuries – None
Before the season, I thought the Nets had a chance to be one of the best defenses in the NBA. Nic Claxton is a great rim protector and has the athleticism to switch onto guards. They have plenty of long, athletic wings who can guard. Those should be the underpinnings of devastating defense that plays aggressively, switching everything and forcing turnovers. Well, I was very wrong about that. They have the eighth-worst defensive rating in the league and give up an average of 116.5 points per game. The focus has been on creating scoring chances and the effort level when guarding the other team has been low. Friday, they go to Washington to play a Wizards team that is also not focused on playing good defense and instead pushes pace and scores a lot of points, although almost always less than their opponents. The Wizards do not appear interested in winning games and routinely blow leads in the fourth quarter. Washington is in the bottom half of the league in offensive rating, but they make up for poor efficiency by playing at the fastest pace in the NBA. Put the two teams together, and we should have a game with a lot of scoring, but I’m not playing the over for the full game. Instead, I like the Wizards team total over 117.5 better. Washington and Brooklyn should be happy to run up and down the floor with one another and when the Wizards have gotten to play at their pace they have scored points in bunches. Over is a good look, but the Washington team total over is a better look. I found over 117.5 at -115 but would play over 118.5 at a price better than -110.
Bet
Washington Wizards Team Total Over 117.5 (-115, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Memphis Grizzlies at Los Angeles Clippers
Current Line – Clippers -7, 226
My Projection – Clippers 119, Grizzlies 108
Key Injuries –Ja Morant and Kawhi Leonard are questionable.
Ja Morant missed Thursday night’s game due to an illness. Kawhi Leonard practiced Thursday but has missed his last three games. That makes things a little murky, but as I look through all the scenarios, I like the Clippers. If both stars play, I make the Clippers 12-point favorites. Los Angeles has been one of the best teams in the league when Leonard, James Harden and Paul George are playing together. As good as the Grizzlies have played with Morant, it hasn’t been nearly as good as the Clippers, and this is the second night of a road back-to-back, which is a tough spot for any team. If Morant plays and Kawhi does not, I make the Clippers 8-point favorites. That’s just a one-point edge, and although I generally look for a bigger variance to the market price, I think my model is underestimating the impact of the back-to-back and the Clippers’ ability to play well without Kawhi. The best part of having Kawhi and Paul George is that as long as one is healthy, you have always have a good wing defender who can score, and Ty Lue is a great coach who knows how to adjust. If Morant misses the game and Kawhi plays, I make it Clippers -16, and I’m not sure that’s even big enough. Without Morant, the Grizzlies are not good. They will be overmatched at every position. If neither Morant nor Kawhi play, I make the Clippers 11-point favorites. Again, Memphis is bad without their star, and the Clippers still have plenty of talent and a system that allows to succeed even without Kawhi. So, that makes four scenarios and I show an edge on the Clippers in every single one. Let’s cross our fingers and hope we don’t end up with “Ja in, Kawhi out” on the pre-game injury report, but I think we have a good bet even if that’s the case. I’m betting the Clippers -7.
Bet
Los Angeles Clippers -7 (-110, BetParx)
Not For Noops
Games I’m not betting, and why I’m not betting them.
New York Knicks at Orlando Magic -1.5, 227
My projections are within in one of the market on this game that looks like a very even matchup to me. This is the first night of a back-to-back for the Knicks, but they generally play their best on the first night and struggle the second night, so I’m not concerned about the distraction of looking ahead to tomorrow. I think the Orlando Magic are the better team, but they have not been playing well the last few weeks. Part of their recent struggles is due to a tougher schedule, but going 4-of-7 over 11 games is still concerning. I can’t discern an edge on either side or the total in this game, so no bets for me.
Toronto Raptors at Boston Celtics -8, 225.5
The Celtics survived the scare of a lifetime Thursday. They were down 19 points to the Detroit Pistons at halftime, blew a 6-point lead with 1:40 left in the fourth quarter and needed overtime to avoid being the team to end Detroit’s record-setting losing streak. Speaking qualitatively, shouldn’t this be the ultimate letdown spot? I can’t imagine how they could play their best after exerting all that effort. Unfortunately, I can’t find a good quantitative reason to back the Raptors. Even though Jaylen Brown and/or Jayson Tatum might not play and if they both miss the game, this would be a great number on Toronto, but it’s not worth the risk of betting it now. There’s nothing I can see value in betting at this point.
Sacramento Kings at Atlanta Hawks -1, 251.5
This, like Nets vs. Wizards, should be another game devoid of defense and with plenty of points. The current betting prices are close to what my model says. They’re two very similar teams with great guards and big men that score. I think it might be a good game for alternate overs, but Sacramento isn’t as good on the road and Atlanta has Jalen Johnson back in the fold. The Hawks defense was much better to start the season with JJ who is a perfect fit at power forward for this team. There will be lessons to learn about both squads in this game, but there are not any bets I can suggest you make.
Milwaukee Bucks at Cleveland Cavaliers +6, 239.5
We have to wait to bet this game because we don’t know if Donovan Mitchell is going to play. He made it through a full practice but was ruled out just before Cleveland’s game Wednesday. If Mitchell can play, I would bet an over or over the Bucks team total. If Mitchell is out, I’ll probably stay away from this game because the Cavaliers are likely to slow the game down which is always bad news for an over bet. Nothing for me now, but keep an eye on the #nba-plays channel of the FTNBets Discord because I’ll put my bet there if/when I make it.
Philadelphia 76ers at Houston Rockets +1.5, 223.5
I have been dead wrong about the last two Houston games. The Rockets had been a great defensive team at home, suffocating opponents and dragging them down to a slow pace. Tuesday, the Indiana Pacers got Houston running and were able to score 123. Wednesday, the Suns crushed the Rockets defensive trapping scheme and were able to score 129. The 76ers are without Joel Embiid tonight, but there is plenty of talent left to attack Houston the same way their last two opponents did. I tend to think this is a bit of bounce back game for the Rockets since it’s the first night of a back-to-back for Philadelphia, but I’m going to pass. My projections are close to the current prices.
Charlotte Hornets at Phoenix Suns -15, 231
Bradley Beal is listed as questionable, so we might get to see Phoenix’s big three for third time this season. Unfortunately, whether he plays or not, this game is unbettable. The Suns could be good enough to cover such a large spread, but they’re not going to do it playing the basketball we’ve seen from them the last few weeks. At the same time, 15 points is not enough for me to back a Hornets team that has been arguably the worst team in the NBA since they’ve lost LaMelo Ball due to injury. This game is a mess, just pretend it doesn’t exist, and move on to something else.
Oklahoma City Thunder at Denver Nuggets -2.5, 236.5
This is best game of the night, but unfortunately the best games to watch are not always the best games to bet. Denver was a 2-point favorite in OKC at the end of October and a 5-point favorite in Denver two weeks ago. That means the market has just this line 2.5 points down which I think is mostly downgrading the Nuggets since it’s the second night of a back-to-back for them and a small upgrade for how good the Thunder have been playing. I’m excited to watch this game, but I don’t see any good bets to make. I do make Denver -4, but that’s not a big enough edge for me to play. Enjoy the basketball, but I can’t advise any wagers to enjoy with it.
San Antonio Spurs at Portland Trail Blazers -5.5, 232
Let’s save some time. Here’s what I wrote about this game Thursday: “This is the first of a two game series between these teams played in two nights. So, that means we get to ask ourselves twice, do we want to lay points with the terrible Trail Blazers, or do we want to take less than 10 points with a team that is not trying to win games? Portland has been playing better and shows signs of being a functional NBA team, but I’m not laying more than a few points with them even against a bad team at home. The Spurs continue to love all the cover the Detroit Pistons are running for them, because they have lost 23 of their last 24 games. My projections make it Portland -3, with a total of 233. Do with that what you will, but I’m not betting this game today or tomorrow.”
