Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Happy Thanksgiving, and welcome to Hoops with Noops! This is my favorite holiday, and it’s not particularly close. I love the meal, I love not having to do much other than help set the table and peel some potatoes, and I love that every NBA team gets a day off to rest their bodies and spend some time with their families even if that means no NBA games. The other nice thing about every NBA team being off is that we get a day to attack futures markets.
For the purpose of today’s article, let’s find some value in the In-Season Tournament betting markets. We’re almost to the end of group play, with a few teams already having played four games and only 18 more games left in total. This puts us close enough to the knockout round to have a good idea of how the standings will shake out, but far enough from the next phase to miss out on value. Let’s look at each group to see if there are any worthy wagers for group play, the knockout rounds or champion.
Eastern Conference Group A
(Team, Record in Group, Point Differential)
- Indiana Pacers 3-0 +17
- Cleveland Cavaliers 2-1 +6
- Philadelphia 76ers 2-2 +9
- Atlanta Hawks 1-2 -9
- Detroit Pistons 0-3 -22
This group is wrapped up thanks to the Pacers’ wins over Cleveland, Philadelphia and Atlanta. Even if they lose their last game to Detroit, they will be 3-1 and have the tiebreaker over Cleveland, who could also finish 3-1. Philadelphia has played all four of their games and has effectively been eliminated since they can’t win the group, and their record of 2-2 will be behind a 3-1 second-place finisher. The Hawks and Cavaliers play one another in a game that could eliminate Cleveland but can’t advance Atlanta. If the Hawks win, they finish 2-2, and so do the Cavaliers. If Cleveland can win and by a decent margin, they’re in contention to be the wild-card team (team with the best record that didn’t win their group). The first tiebreaker is point differential, so margin of victory is key.
Bets
- None
Eastern Conference Group B
(Team, Record in Group, Point Differential)
- Milwaukee Bucks 2-0 +36
- Miami Heat 2-0 +13
- New York Knicks 1-1 +16
- Charlotte Hornets 1-2 -30
- Washington Wizards 0-3 -35
This group is still wide open with the top three teams all having a shot to either win the group or be the East wild card. The Knicks have a game left against the Heat tomorrow and a game against the Hornets on Nov. 28. If they can win both of those, they’re in great shape to be the East wild card but would need the Bucks to lose twice. Milwaukee has Washington tomorrow and Miami in their final game. If they win both, they win the group. If they lose to Miami, they may lose the group. But even with one loss, they’ll be in good shape to be the wild card. The Heat have the toughest remaining path with a game against the Knicks tomorrow and the Bucks to finish. Like Milwaukee, if Miami wins both games, they win the group. If they lose one, they’ll be in contention for the East wild card. Naturally, the Bucks are favorites to win this group because they’ll be favorites in their two remaining games. Miami is +270 to win this group but only needs to beat Milwaukee to do it unless they lose to the Knicks by a large margin. They were +170 in Milwaukee earlier, so let’s grab the +270. It’s effectively the same bet as the Miami moneyline in that game.
Bets
- Miami Heat to win East Group B (+270, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Eastern Conference Group C
(Team, Record in Group, Point Differential)
- Boston Celtics 2-0 +17
- Brooklyn Nets 2-1 +7
- Orlando Magic 2-1 +6
- Chicago Bulls 0-2 -8
- Toronto Raptors 0-2 -22
The Celtics are in control of this group. Their final two games are against the Magic and the Bulls. Boston will be strong favorites to win both and therefore strong favorites to win this group at -400. That means the only other team with a shot to win the group is Orlando, who can finish 3-1 with the head-to-head tiebreaker over Boston. Unfortunately, Orlando lost to Brooklyn by 20 points, and if the Nets finish at 3-1 along with the Magic and Celtics, then it all comes down to point differential. That means there is too much variability to bet on this group. The most likely scenario is Boston winning with a 4-0 record. If it ends up with three teams tied at 3-1, it’s too hard to project how the point differential is going to finish.
Bets
- None
Western Conference Group A
(Team, Record in Group, Point Differential)
- Los Angeles Lakers 4-0 +74
- Phoenix Suns 2-1 +12
- Utah Jazz 2-2 -13
- Portland Trail Blazers 1-3 -39
- Memphis Grizzlies 0-3 -34
Like East Group A, things are all wrapped up here already. The Lakers won all their games with a very impressive combined point differential of +74. The only other team worth noting is the Phoenix Suns, who could be the West wild card if they can beat the Memphis Grizzlies by 10+ points. The wild card in the West is going to be tight, but Phoenix has as good of a shot as anyone. Maybe look to bet Phoenix alternate spreads in that matchup. Everyone else is eliminated and waiting to see when and who they’ll play, while other teams face off in the knockout rounds.
Bets
- None
Western Conference Group B
(Team, Record in Group, Point Differential)
- New Orleans Pelicans 2-1 +23
- Denver Nuggets 2-1 +9
- Houston Rockets 1-1 -3
- Dallas Mavericks 1-2 -13
- Los Angeles Clippers 1-2 -15
Things are very tight in this group. New Orleans has a win over Denver but lost to Houston. If Houston can win their next two games against Denver and Dallas, they’ll win the group by being 3-1 with the tiebreaker over New Orleans. That said, they’ll be underdogs in both matchups, and if they lose either they are out of the group unless no one finishes 3-1. If Houston doesn’t finish 3-1 and the Pelicans do, they’ll win the group via tiebreaker over Denver. They play the Clippers in their last game and are +240 to win. Given that price, I don’t think there’s value in betting them to win the group at +125. They can lose that game and win the group, but it seems unlikely to me that 2-2 will be good enough. The Nuggets need to beat the Rockets and hope the Pelicans lose, otherwise New Orleans will win the group. If you parlay Denver to win with New Orleans to lose, you get +125, which is basically Denver’s price to win the group. There’s no value in this mess that I can see.
Bets
- None
Western Conference Group C
(Team, Record in Group, Point Differential)
- Sacramento Kings 2-0 +16
- Minnesota Timberwolves 2-0 +10
- Golden State Warriors 1-1 -1
- Oklahoma City Thunder 1-2 +27
- San Antonio Spurs 0-3 -52
Shoutout to the Thunder for beating the Spurs by 36 but losing to the Kings and Warriors to be 1-2. However, they have the third-best point differential of any team. Tomorrow, the Kings face the Timberwolves, and the winner of that matchup will be able to win the group by winning their last game and finishing with a 4-0 record. The loser is out of the running due to the head-to-head tiebreaker. The Warriors are also in contention to win but need some help. Minnesota beat Golden State, so they need the Timberwolves to lose twice or else the Warriors finish with the same record and a tiebreaker loss or a worse record. If they’re lucky enough to have that happen, they need their last two games to finish 3-1 with a tiebreaker win over Sacramento. The Timberwolves are favored to win that matchup with the Kings, and I think it’s better to just bet that game if you have an angle than attack the market to win this group.
Bets
- None
In Season Tournament Winner
The Pacers are into the knockout stage. I feel confident the Celtics get in and are strong favorites to win their group. That leaves the winner of East Group B and the East wild card, which I think will be the second-place finisher of East Group B, so let’s put the Bucks and the Heat in as well. That means our four Eastern Conference teams would be Bucks, Heat, Pacers and Celtics. Seeding is based on record, then point differential, and the Bucks have a big lead there. I think the order will be Milwaukee, Boston, Indiana and Miami, which means it would be Milwaukee vs. Miami and Boston vs. Indiana in the brackets.
That would favor the Celtics, who have the easiest game playing the Pacers. To no surprise, Boston is the favorite to win the In-Season Tournament at +325 followed closely by Milwaukee at +425. Those are solid numbers, but I don’t want to bet either. Indiana is +1200, and I think you’ll do better than that by betting them game-to-game in the knockout round games. Miami is the bet to make at +2500. The Heat have yet to lock up a spot and could lose the wild card, but they have a lead in point differential and a chance to win their group outright. If they can get into the knockout rounds, we have a ton of value at +2500. Really any price +1800 or better is good to me.
In the West, the Lakers are the only team that’s made the next round. The rest is tough to figure out at this stage. I think Minnesota wins Group C, but Group B is a true toss up between Denver and New Orleans. Phoenix is in the best shape to win the wild card, but it could be Sacramento. I’ll go with the Lakers, Timberwolves, Pelicans and Suns in that order. The Lakers are intriguing at +650, but I don’t think that number changes much before the knockout round starts, and if they get Phoenix in the quarterfinals, it’s not good value. We might bet LA later, but not now. Denver is the fourth betting favorite, and I think that’s a mistake given they could miss the knockout stages entirely still. I can’t bet on New Orleans or Phoenix given their current prices, since they might miss the knockout round as well. The price I like right now is Minnesota to win the IST at +950. They haven’t won their group but are favorites to do so and likely favorites in their first quarterfinal matchup.
Bets
- Miami Heat to Win the NBA In-Season Tournament (+2500, 0.5U, DraftKings)
- Minnesota Timberwolves to Win the NBA In-Season Tournament (+950, DraftKings)
